Thomas
WR · JAX vs CIN
Proj pts
9.2pts
market
Kupp
WR · SEA vs LAC
Proj pts
8.8pts
market
Brian Thomas Jr. or Cooper Kupp: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Brian Thomas Jr over Cooper Kupp by 0.4. Brian Thomas Jr. leads at 9.2. Cooper Kupp is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Tough matchupTough · F vs WR
Cons
- Thin volume4.4 targets/g
- Tough matchupTough · D+ vs WR
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Thomas 8, Kupp 16.
Latest game on the card: Thomas 1.8, Kupp 14.6 (PPR points).
Why Brian Thomas Jr.
Start Brian Thomas Jr. — projects 9.2, a tough matchup vs CIN.
Brian Thomas Jr. projects 9.2 points on a 6.3–10.6 range. The matchup grades as tough against CIN. Usage: targets / game at 6.5. Net: start Brian Thomas Jr. this week.
Working against Thomas: Tough matchup (Tough · F vs WR).
Where Thomas leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.2 vs 8.8); Floor (6.3 vs 4.8); Target share (19% vs 16%); Last 5 avg (6.3 vs 6.1); Consistency (52% vs 48%); Bust rate (14% vs 19%); Targets / game (6.5 vs 4.4); Snap share (78% vs 76%).
Why Cooper Kupp
Sit Cooper Kupp — projects 8.8, a tough matchup vs LAC.
Cooper Kupp projects 8.8 points on a 4.8–10.8 range. The matchup grades as tough against LAC. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: bench Cooper Kupp this week.
Working against Kupp: Thin volume (4.4 targets/g), Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs WR).
Where Kupp leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (10.8 vs 10.6); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (D+ vs F); Implied team total (24.8 vs 24.5); Last 3 avg (8.0 vs 5.3); vs season (-0.9 vs -1.5); Boom rate (25% vs 14%); Red zone targets (16 vs 8).
Recent form
Brian Thomas Jr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 7.9, 7.9, 7, 7, 1.8 (oldest to newest).
Cooper Kupp's last 5 games: PPR points 1.6, 4.9, 5.5, 4, 14.6 (oldest to newest).
Thomas has already beaten Kupp's 8.8 projection in 0 of his 5; Kupp has beaten Thomas's 9.2 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) faces CIN, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread +2.5.
Cooper Kupp (SEA) faces LAC, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 24.8, spread -7.0.
What flips it
Thomas's edge is 0.4 points (9.2 to 8.8). Kupp's ceiling (10.8) clears Thomas's projection, so a big game from Kupp flips it. Thomas's floor (6.3) sits under Kupp's projection, so a quiet game from Thomas flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Mike Evans or Quentin Johnston9.7 · 9.7
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.2 · 15.2
- DJ Moore or DK Metcalf12.5 · 12.5
- Tee Higgins or Zay Flowers16.5 · 16.5
- Christian Watson or George Pickens16.8 · 16.8
- Justin Jefferson or KC Concepcion11.1 · 11.1
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)