nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Samuel

WR · SF vs DEN

Sun 4:25 PM

Proj pts

9.3pts

opportunity

Lower Conf
Bench

Thomas

WR · JAX vs CIN

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

9.2pts

market

Lower Conf

Brian Thomas Jr. or Deebo Samuel Sr.: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Deebo Samuel Sr. Bench Brian Thomas Jr. Deebo Samuel Sr. leads at 9.3. Brian Thomas Jr. is the first one out, 0.0 short.

Crowd: 63% of managers started Samuel.

Samuel and Thomas are effectively tied on projection — Samuel gets the start on the tie-break.

Highlights

Deebo Samuel Sr.Start
WR · SF vs DEN

Pros

  • Alpha target share25% target share

Cons

  • Tough matchupTough · D+ vs WR
Brian Thomas Jr.Bench
WR · JAX vs CIN

Cons

  • Tough matchupTough · F vs WR

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

SamuelStart
ThomasBench
Projection9.39.2
Floor7.26.3
Ceiling17.110.6
Target share25%19%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)D+F
Implied team total25.324.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Samuel 13.3, Thomas 5.3.

Latest game on the card: Samuel 15.4, Thomas 1.8 (PPR points).

Why Deebo Samuel Sr.

Start Deebo Samuel Sr. — projects 9.3, a tough matchup vs DEN.

Deebo Samuel Sr. projects 9.3 points on a 7.2–17.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against DEN. Usage: targets / game at 6.2. Net: start Deebo Samuel Sr. this week.

Working for Samuel: Alpha target share (25% target share).

Working against Samuel: Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs WR).

Where Samuel leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.3 vs 9.2); Floor (7.2 vs 6.3); Ceiling (17.1 vs 10.6); Target share (25% vs 19%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (D+ vs F); Implied team total (25.3 vs 24.5); Last 3 avg (13.3 vs 5.3); Last 5 avg (11.7 vs 6.3); vs season (+0.4 vs -1.5); Boom rate (25% vs 14%); Red zone targets (13 vs 8); Grade vs WR (recency weighted) (D+ vs F); Implied total (25.3 vs 24.5).

Why Brian Thomas Jr.

Sit Brian Thomas Jr. — projects 9.2, a tough matchup vs CIN.

Brian Thomas Jr. projects 9.2 points on a 6.3–10.6 range. The matchup grades as tough against CIN. Usage: targets / game at 6.5. Net: bench Brian Thomas Jr. this week.

Working against Thomas: Tough matchup (Tough · F vs WR).

Where Thomas leads the head-to-head: Consistency (52% vs 46%); Bust rate (14% vs 19%); Targets / game (6.5 vs 6.2); Snap share (78% vs 72%).

Recent form

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 11.3, 7.1, 18, 6.5, 15.4 (oldest to newest).

Brian Thomas Jr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 7.9, 7.9, 7, 7, 1.8 (oldest to newest).

Samuel has already beaten Thomas's 9.2 projection in 3 of his 5; Thomas has beaten Samuel's 9.3 in 0 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Deebo Samuel Sr. (SF) faces DEN, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 25.3, spread -3.0.

Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) faces CIN, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread +2.5.

What flips it

Samuel's edge is 0.1 points (9.3 to 9.2). Thomas's ceiling (10.6) clears Samuel's projection, so a big game from Thomas flips it. Samuel's floor (7.2) sits under Thomas's projection, so a quiet game from Samuel flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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