McConkey
WR · LAC @ LA
Kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET
Projected points9.9pts
Thomas
WR · JAX vs IND
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points4.8ptsUsage estimate
Lean
Bench
Brian Thomas Jr. or Ladd McConkey: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Ladd McConkey over Brian Thomas Jr.
- Ahead by
- +5.1pts
- over Thomas
- Confidence
- Moderate
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 41%
- of leagues
Thomas's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
Start Brian Thomas Jr. instead if you want an offense expected to score more (28.3 points to 19.3).
Risk
Ladd McConkey has played 1 game since missing time.
Highlights
McConkeyLeanWR · LAC @ LAUsually 9.1+0.8pts this week
Helps him
- +0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 3.5 catches, above his usual 3.0.
Hurts him
- 50%dud weeks50% of his games have been dud weeks.
- −3.4last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 3.4 points below his season average.
ThomasFirst outWR · JAX vs INDUsually 4.3+0.5pts this week
Helps him
- +3.9ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
- 28.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 28.3 points, a high scoring spot.
Hurts him
- −2.8ptsroleHe’s expected to play fewer snaps this week than he has lately.
- 12%targetsHe draws only 12% of his team’s targets.
- 3.2per gameHe sees only 3.2 targets a game.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionMcConkey: 9.9 (best)Thomas: 4.8
TD pointsof the projectionMcConkey: 1.8Thomas: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekMcConkey: 0.30Thomas: Our estimate
Projected team pointsMcConkey: 19.3Thomas: 28.3 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameMcConkey: 0.4Thomas: 0.7 (best)
Role
Snap shareMcConkey: 46% (best)Thomas: 43%
Usage worthptsMcConkey: 6.5 (best)Thomas: 5.7
Target shareMcConkey: 12%Thomas: 12%
Targets / gameMcConkey: 3.6 (best)Thomas: 3.2
Air yards shareMcConkey: 19% (best)Thomas: 15%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsMcConkey: 2 RZ targetsThomas: In line
WOPRMcConkey: 0.31 (best)Thomas: 0.27
RZ target shareMcConkey: 10% (best)Thomas: 9%
Catch rateMcConkey: 72% (best)Thomas: 47%
SeparationMcConkey: 3.1 yds (best)Thomas: 2.4 yds
YAC over expectedMcConkey: +0.6 (best)Thomas: −2.1
Usage worth vs scoredMcConkey: Earned by usage 6.5Scored 7.8Thomas: Earned by usage 5.7Scored 4.3
Vacated targets this weekMcConkey: 4.0 (best)Thomas: 0.0
Inside 10 target shareMcConkey: 18% (best)Thomas: 14%
Range
FloorMcConkey: 5.8 (best)Thomas: 2.6
CeilingMcConkey: 16.5 (best)Thomas: 7.7
Points from TDssteadier when lowerMcConkey: 15%Thomas: 24%
Big weeks (20+ pts)McConkey: 0%Thomas: 0%
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterMcConkey: 50%Thomas: 40% (best)
SteadinessMcConkey: Volatile±8.0 pts · 4 gamesThomas: Up & down (best)±4.0 pts · 5 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmMcConkey: CThomas: C+ (best)
Game scriptMcConkey: Expected to trailThomas: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterMcConkey: 0.9Thomas: 0.4 (best)
Defense funnelMcConkey: NeutralThomas: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedMcConkey: 4th (tough)Thomas: 11th (average) (best)
Starting QBMcConkey: Herbert (Active)Thomas: Lawrence (Active)
Opp defender outMcConkey: None listedThomas: Taylor-Britt (CB)
Roof / surfaceMcConkey: DometurfThomas: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleMcConkey: Off a byeThomas: Off a bye
Opp paceMcConkey: 3rd (fast) (best)Thomas: 7th (fast)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameMcConkey: 2.15th (tough)Thomas: 3.6 (best)25th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedMcConkey: 53%1st (tough)Thomas: 60% (best)13th (average)
Form
Last 3 avgMcConkey: 4.4 (best)Thomas: 3.2
Last 5 avgMcConkey: 7.8 (best)Thomas: 3.7
vs seasonMcConkey: −3.4 (Cooling)Thomas: −1.0 (Cooling) (best)
Yards per route runMcConkey: 2.47 (best)Thomas: 1.03
Receiving aDOTMcConkey: 13.2Thomas: 11.5
Target share trendMcConkey: Left Week 6 hurtThomas: Cooling
Games since injuryMcConkey: 1Thomas: None recently
Crowd
Started in leaguesMcConkey: 41%Thomas: Not widely started
Nuvela position ranklower is betterMcConkey: WR34 (best)Thomas: WR75
Yards linereceivingMcConkey: 46.0Thomas: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.