nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Harrison

WR · ARI vs NYG

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

9.4pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Thomas

WR · JAX vs CIN

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

9.2pts

market

Lower Conf

Brian Thomas Jr. or Marvin Harrison Jr.: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Marvin Harrison Jr. Bench Brian Thomas Jr. Marvin Harrison Jr. leads at 9.4. Brian Thomas Jr. is the first one out, 0.2 short.

Highlights

Marvin Harrison Jr.Start
WR · ARI vs NYG

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs WR

Cons

  • Shaky floor3.2 floor
Brian Thomas Jr.Bench
WR · JAX vs CIN

Cons

  • Tough matchupTough · F vs WR

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

HarrisonStart
ThomasBench
Projection9.49.2
Floor3.26.3
Ceiling14.010.6
Target share18%19%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)B+F
Implied team total23.024.5

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 5 avg: Harrison 2.7, Thomas 6.3.

Latest game on the card: Harrison 7, Thomas 1.8 (PPR points).

Why Marvin Harrison Jr.

Start Marvin Harrison Jr. — projects 9.4, a favorable matchup vs NYG, but the role is cooling.

Marvin Harrison Jr. projects 9.4 points on a 3.2–14.0 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYG. Usage: targets / game at 6.1. Net: start Marvin Harrison Jr. this week.

Working for Harrison: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs WR).

Working against Harrison: Shaky floor (3.2 floor).

Where Harrison leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.4 vs 9.2); Ceiling (14.0 vs 10.6); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs F); Boom rate (27% vs 14%); Red zone targets (11 vs 8); Grade vs WR (recency weighted) (B+ vs F).

Why Brian Thomas Jr.

Sit Brian Thomas Jr. — projects 9.2, a tough matchup vs CIN.

Brian Thomas Jr. projects 9.2 points on a 6.3–10.6 range. The matchup grades as tough against CIN. Usage: targets / game at 6.5. Net: bench Brian Thomas Jr. this week.

Working against Thomas: Tough matchup (Tough · F vs WR).

Where Thomas leads the head-to-head: Floor (6.3 vs 3.2); Target share (19% vs 18%); Implied team total (24.5 vs 23.0); Last 3 avg (5.3 vs 3.8); Last 5 avg (6.3 vs 2.7); vs season (-1.5 vs -5.0); Consistency (52% vs 38%); Bust rate (14% vs 27%); Targets / game (6.5 vs 6.1); Snap share (78% vs 71%); Implied total (24.5 vs 23.0).

Recent form

Marvin Harrison Jr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 2.4, 0, 4.3, 0, 7 (oldest to newest).

Brian Thomas Jr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 7.9, 7.9, 7, 7, 1.8 (oldest to newest).

Harrison has already beaten Thomas's 9.2 projection in 0 of his 5; Thomas has beaten Harrison's 9.4 in 0 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -1.5.

Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) faces CIN, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread +2.5.

What flips it

Harrison's edge is 0.2 points (9.4 to 9.2). Thomas's ceiling (10.6) clears Harrison's projection, so a big game from Thomas flips it. Harrison's floor (3.2) sits under Thomas's projection, so a quiet game from Harrison flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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