Pittman
WR · PIT vs CLE
QuestionableProj pts
9.7pts
market
Thomas
WR · JAX vs CIN
Proj pts
9.2pts
market
Brian Thomas Jr. or Michael Pittman: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Michael Pittman. Bench Brian Thomas Jr. Michael Pittman leads at 9.7. Brian Thomas Jr. is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Availability & news
Michael PittmanQuestionable
Highlights
Pros
- Every-down role86% of snaps
Cons
- Tough matchupTough · D- vs WR
- Shaky floor3.6 floor
Cons
- Tough matchupTough · F vs WR
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Pittman 35%, Thomas 14%.
Pittman is listed: Questionable.
Latest game on the card: Pittman 3.6, Thomas 1.8 (PPR points).
Why Michael Pittman
Start Michael Pittman — projects 9.7, a tough matchup vs CLE, but the role is cooling, carrying a questionable tag.
Michael Pittman projects 9.7 points on a 3.6–12.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against CLE. Usage: targets / game at 6.5. Track the questionable designation before kickoff. Net: start Michael Pittman this week.
Working for Pittman: Every-down role (86% of snaps).
Working against Pittman: Tough matchup (Tough · D- vs WR), Shaky floor (3.6 floor).
Where Pittman leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.7 vs 9.2); Ceiling (12.0 vs 10.6); Target share (21% vs 19%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (D- vs F); Boom rate (29% vs 14%); Snap share (86% vs 78%); Red zone targets (18 vs 8); Grade vs WR (recency weighted) (D- vs F).
Why Brian Thomas Jr.
Sit Brian Thomas Jr. — projects 9.2, a tough matchup vs CIN.
Brian Thomas Jr. projects 9.2 points on a 6.3–10.6 range. The matchup grades as tough against CIN. Usage: targets / game at 6.5. Net: bench Brian Thomas Jr. this week.
Working against Thomas: Tough matchup (Tough · F vs WR).
Where Thomas leads the head-to-head: Floor (6.3 vs 3.6); Implied team total (24.5 vs 20.5); Last 3 avg (5.3 vs 5.2); Last 5 avg (6.3 vs 5.3); vs season (-1.5 vs -1.7); Consistency (52% vs 39%); Bust rate (14% vs 35%); Implied total (24.5 vs 20.5).
Recent form
Michael Pittman's last 5 games: PPR points 7.2, 3.6, 3.1, 8.8, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Brian Thomas Jr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 7.9, 7.9, 7, 7, 1.8 (oldest to newest).
Pittman has already beaten Thomas's 9.2 projection in 0 of his 5; Thomas has beaten Pittman's 9.7 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Michael Pittman (PIT) faces CLE, kickoff Thu 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) faces CIN, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread +2.5.
What flips it
Pittman's edge is 0.5 points (9.7 to 9.2). Thomas's ceiling (10.6) clears Pittman's projection, so a big game from Thomas flips it. Pittman's floor (3.6) sits under Thomas's projection, so a quiet game from Pittman flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Mike Evans or Quentin Johnston9.7 · 9.7
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.2 · 15.2
- DK Metcalf or DJ Moore12.5 · 12.5
- Zay Flowers or Tee Higgins16.5 · 16.5
- George Pickens or Christian Watson16.8 · 16.8
- Justin Jefferson or KC Concepcion11.1 · 11.1
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)