Thomas
WR · JAX vs CIN
Proj pts
9.2pts
market
Odunze
WR · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
9pts
market
Brian Thomas Jr. or Rome Odunze: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Brian Thomas Jr. Bench Rome Odunze. Brian Thomas Jr. leads at 9.2. Rome Odunze is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Crowd: 40% of managers started Odunze.
Highlights
Cons
- Tough matchupTough · F vs WR
Pros
- Every-down role88% of snaps
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Thomas 14%, Odunze 33%.
Latest game on the card: Thomas 1.8, Odunze 7.4 (PPR points).
Why Brian Thomas Jr.
Start Brian Thomas Jr. — projects 9.2, a tough matchup vs CIN.
Brian Thomas Jr. projects 9.2 points on a 6.3–10.6 range. The matchup grades as tough against CIN. Usage: targets / game at 6.5. Net: start Brian Thomas Jr. this week.
Working against Thomas: Tough matchup (Tough · F vs WR).
Where Thomas leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.2 vs 9.0); Implied team total (24.5 vs 23.5); vs season (-1.5 vs -1.9); Consistency (52% vs 30%); Bust rate (14% vs 33%); Implied total (24.5 vs 23.5).
Why Rome Odunze
Sit Rome Odunze — projects 9.0, an even matchup vs NYJ, but the role is cooling.
Rome Odunze projects 9.0 points on a 6.6–14.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NYJ. Usage: targets / game at 7.5. Net: bench Rome Odunze this week.
Working for Odunze: Every-down role (88% of snaps).
Where Odunze leads the head-to-head: Floor (6.6 vs 6.3); Ceiling (14.9 vs 10.6); Target share (24% vs 19%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C vs F); Last 3 avg (7.3 vs 5.3); Last 5 avg (6.6 vs 6.3); Boom rate (17% vs 14%); Targets / game (7.5 vs 6.5); Snap share (88% vs 78%); Red zone targets (14 vs 8); Grade vs WR (recency weighted) (C vs F).
Recent form
Brian Thomas Jr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 7.9, 7.9, 7, 7, 1.8 (oldest to newest).
Rome Odunze's last 5 games: PPR points 8.3, 2.8, 7.2, 7.3, 7.4 (oldest to newest).
Thomas has already beaten Odunze's 9 projection in 0 of his 5; Odunze has beaten Thomas's 9.2 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) faces CIN, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread +2.5.
Rome Odunze (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Thomas's edge is 0.2 points (9.2 to 9). Odunze's ceiling (14.9) clears Thomas's projection, so a big game from Odunze flips it. Thomas's floor (6.3) sits under Odunze's projection, so a quiet game from Thomas flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Mike Evans or Quentin Johnston9.7 · 9.7
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.2 · 15.2
- DK Metcalf or DJ Moore12.5 · 12.5
- Zay Flowers or Tee Higgins16.5 · 16.5
- George Pickens or Christian Watson16.8 · 16.8
- Justin Jefferson or KC Concepcion11.1 · 11.1
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)