New
Week8 · 2026
Starting1
Scoring
New comparison
Lean

Bowers

TE · LV @ NYJ

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points16.2pts

First out

Goedert

TE · PHI @ WAS

Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ET

Projected points11.2ptsUsage estimate

Lean

Bench

Brock Bowers or Dallas Goedert: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Lean Brock Bowers over Dallas Goedert.

Ahead by
+5.0pts
over Goedert
Confidence
Moderate
The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Started
98%
of leagues

Goedert's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Flips if

Start Dallas Goedert instead if you want the easier matchup (the 2nd softest defense for tight ends, while Bowers faces the 16th softest defense for tight ends).

Risk

The risk: Bowers's share of the targets fell to 19% in Week 7, against 27% for the season.

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 2:00 PM ET
BowersLeanTE · LV @ NYJUsually 19.1−2.9pts this week

Helps him

  1. 27%targetsHe draws 27% of his team’s targets, a lead share for a tight end.
  2. 10.2per gameHe sees 10.2 targets a game.
  3. 1.6red zoneHe gets 1.6 red zone targets a game, a real path to touchdowns.

Hurts him

  1. −2.1ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 70.0 receiving yards, below his usual 91.0.
  2. −1.3ptscatchesHis lines put him at 5.5 catches, below his usual 6.8.
GoedertFirst outTE · PHI @ WASUsually 13.8−2.7pts this week

Helps him

  1. +1.0ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
  2. WASvs TEsEdgeWAS is the 2nd softest defense for tight ends.

Hurts him

  1. −1.6ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
  2. −1.5ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
  3. −0.5ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
  4. 17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Stat
Scoring
ProjectionBowers: 16.2 (best)Goedert: 11.2
TD pointsof the projectionBowers: 3.7Goedert: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekBowers: 0.61Goedert: Our estimate
Projected team pointsBowers: 22.0 (best)Goedert: 17.0
Red zone targetsper gameBowers: 1.6 (best)Goedert: 0.6
Role
Snap shareBowers: 83% (best)Goedert: 69%
Usage worthptsBowers: 18.3 (best)Goedert: 9.8
Target shareBowers: 27% (best)Goedert: 18%
Targets / gameBowers: 10.2 (best)Goedert: 6.2
Air yards shareBowers: 33% (best)Goedert: 13%
Vacated targets this weekBowers: 3.0 (best)Goedert: 0.0
RZ target shareBowers: 24%Goedert: 30% (best)
Inside 10 target shareBowers: 33% (best)Goedert: 0%
Catch rateBowers: 67%Goedert: 71% (best)
SeparationBowers: 2.3 ydsGoedert: 2.9 yds (best)
YAC over expectedBowers: +0.8Goedert: +1.0 (best)
Usage worth vs scoredBowers: Earned by usage 18.3Scored 19.1Goedert: Earned by usage 9.8Scored 11.4
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsBowers: AboveGoedert: Above
WOPRBowers: 0.63 (best)Goedert: 0.37
Range
FloorBowers: 9.8 (best)Goedert: 7.1
CeilingBowers: 25.0 (best)Goedert: 18.0
Points from TDssteadier when lowerBowers: 19%Goedert: 21%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Bowers: 60% (best)Goedert: 20%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterBowers: 0% (best)Goedert: 20%
SteadinessBowers: Very steady (best)±6.9 pts · 5 gamesGoedert: Up & down±8.0 pts · 5 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionBowers: C2026, 7 gmGoedert: A+ (best)2026, 6 gm
Game scriptBowers: Expected to trail (best)Goedert: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterBowers: 1.1 (best)Goedert: 1.3
Defense funnelBowers: NeutralGoedert: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedBowers: 5th (tough)Goedert: 28th (soft) (best)
Starting QBBowers: Cousins (Active)Goedert: McKee (Active)
Opp defender outBowers: None listedGoedert: Kinlaw (DT)
Roof / surfaceBowers: OpenturfGoedert: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleBowers: NormalGoedert: Normal
Opp paceBowers: 28th (slow)Goedert: 12th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameBowers: 0.14th (tough)Goedert: 0.5 (best)14th (average)
Opp catch rate allowedBowers: 72%14th (average)Goedert: 76% (best)23rd (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgBowers: 15.8 (best)Goedert: 10.6
Last 5 avgBowers: 19.1 (best)Goedert: 11.4
vs seasonBowers: −3.3 (Cooling)Goedert: −0.8 (Cooling) (best)
Yards per route runBowers: 2.43 (best)Goedert: 2.04
Receiving aDOTBowers: 10.2Goedert: 5.5
Target share trendBowers: CoolingGoedert: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesBowers: 99% (best)Goedert: 82%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterBowers: TE2 (best)Goedert: TE5
Yards linereceivingBowers: 70.0Goedert: Our estimate

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