Kincaid
TE · BUF vs BAL
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETLatest report: Limited · Chest
Projected points10.3pts
if he plays · 80% to play
Goedert
TE · PHI @ WAS
Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ET
Projected points11.2ptsUsage estimate
Start · check inactives
Bench
Dallas Goedert or Dalton Kincaid: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Start Dalton Kincaid. If he's inactive, start Dallas Goedert.
- Confidence
- Depends on inactives
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 60%
- of leagues
Goedert's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
If Dalton Kincaid is inactive, start Dallas Goedert.
Risk
Dalton Kincaid was limited in practice (chest): check the inactives, posted about 90 minutes before kickoff. If he sits, start Dallas Goedert. As of Fri 2:00 PM ET
Highlights
KincaidStart · check inactivesTE · BUF vs BALUsually 10.1+0.2pts this week
Helps him
- +1.2ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.36 touchdowns, above his usual 0.17.
- 28.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 28.8 points, a high scoring spot.
- 33%big weeks33% of his games have been big weeks.
Hurts him
- −0.6ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 46.5 receiving yards, below his usual 52.5.
- 6th softestper targetEdgeBAL allows few TE chances because few passes go to tight ends against them; per target they’re soft (2.07 pts, 6th softest).
- 4.6floorA quiet week could drop to about 4.6 points.
GoedertIf he sitsTE · PHI @ WASUsually 13.8−2.7pts this week
Helps him
- +1.0ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- WASvs TEsEdgeWAS is the 2nd softest defense for tight ends.
Hurts him
- −1.6ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- −1.5ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
- −0.5ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
- 17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionKincaid: 10.3Goedert: 11.2 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionKincaid: 2.2Goedert: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekKincaid: 0.36Goedert: Our estimate
Projected team pointsKincaid: 28.8 (best)Goedert: 17.0
Red zone targetsper gameKincaid: 1.0 (best)Goedert: 0.6
Role
Snap shareKincaid: 68%Goedert: 69% (best)
Usage worthptsKincaid: 8.6Goedert: 9.8 (best)
Target shareKincaid: 18%Goedert: 18%
Targets / gameKincaid: 4.8Goedert: 6.2 (best)
Air yards shareKincaid: 19% (best)Goedert: 13%
Vacated targets this weekKincaid: 0.0Goedert: 0.0
RZ target shareKincaid: 19%Goedert: 30% (best)
Inside 10 target shareKincaid: 17% (best)Goedert: 0%
Catch rateKincaid: 79% (best)Goedert: 71%
SeparationKincaid: 3.0 yds (best)Goedert: 2.9 yds
YAC over expectedKincaid: +2.1 (best)Goedert: +1.0
Usage worth vs scoredKincaid: Earned by usage 8.6Scored 10.1Goedert: Earned by usage 9.8Scored 11.4
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsKincaid: In lineGoedert: Above
WOPRKincaid: 0.38 (best)Goedert: 0.37
Range
FloorKincaid: 4.6Goedert: 7.1 (best)
CeilingKincaid: 18.4 (best)Goedert: 18.0
Points from TDssteadier when lowerKincaid: 10%Goedert: 21%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Kincaid: 33% (best)Goedert: 20%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterKincaid: 50%Goedert: 20% (best)
SteadinessKincaid: Volatile±8.6 pts · 6 gamesGoedert: Up & down (best)±8.0 pts · 5 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionKincaid: C2026, 7 gmGoedert: A+ (best)2026, 6 gm
Game scriptKincaid: Expected to lead (best)Goedert: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterKincaid: 0.9 (best)Goedert: 1.3
Defense funnelKincaid: PassGoedert: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedKincaid: 15th (average)Goedert: 28th (soft) (best)
Starting QBKincaid: Allen (Active)Goedert: McKee (Active)
Opp defender outKincaid: Robinson (LB)Goedert: Kinlaw (DT)
Roof / surfaceKincaid: OpenturfGoedert: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleKincaid: Off a byeGoedert: Normal
Opp paceKincaid: 17th (average)Goedert: 12th (average) (best)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameKincaid: 0.01st (tough)Goedert: 0.5 (best)14th (average)
Opp catch rate allowedKincaid: 76%25th (soft)Goedert: 76%23rd (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgKincaid: 5.4Goedert: 10.6 (best)
Last 5 avgKincaid: 8.5Goedert: 11.4 (best)
vs seasonKincaid: −4.7 (Cooling)Goedert: −0.8 (Cooling) (best)
Yards per route runKincaid: 2.76 (best)Goedert: 2.04
Receiving aDOTKincaid: 9.3Goedert: 5.5
Target share trendKincaid: RisingGoedert: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesKincaid: 61%Goedert: 82% (best)
Nuvela position ranklower is betterKincaid: TE8Goedert: TE5 (best)
Yards linereceivingKincaid: 46.5Goedert: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
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