Otton
TE · TB vs GB
Proj pts
8.4pts
market
Engram
TE · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
7.7pts
market
Cade Otton or Evan Engram: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Cade Otton. Bench Evan Engram. Cade Otton leads at 8.4. Evan Engram is the first one out, 0.8 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low team total18.0 team total
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Rotational role42% of snaps
- Shaky floor2.8 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is snap share: Otton 94%, Engram 42%.
Latest game on the card: Otton 8.6, Engram 0 (PPR points).
Why Cade Otton
Start Cade Otton — projects 8.4, an even matchup vs GB.
Cade Otton projects 8.4 points on a 5.2–9.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 5.4. Net: start Cade Otton this week.
Working against Otton: Low team total (18.0 team total).
Where Otton leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.4 vs 7.7); Floor (5.2 vs 2.8); Target share (18% vs 14%); Last 3 avg (7.7 vs 5.7); Last 5 avg (11.3 vs 6.1); vs season (+3.2 vs -0.1); Boom rate (20% vs 19%); Bust rate (27% vs 31%); Targets / game (5.4 vs 4.8); Snap share (94% vs 42%).
Why Evan Engram
Sit Evan Engram — projects 7.7, a favorable matchup vs SF.
Evan Engram projects 7.7 points on a 2.8–11.7 range. The matchup grades as favorable against SF. Usage: targets / game at 4.8. Net: bench Evan Engram this week.
Working for Engram: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Engram: Rotational role (42% of snaps), Shaky floor (2.8 floor).
Where Engram leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (11.7 vs 9.2); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs C-); Implied team total (22.3 vs 18.0); Consistency (41% vs 31%); Red zone targets (12 vs 7); Touchdown dependence (6% vs 5%); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (B+ vs C-); Implied total (22.3 vs 18.0).
Recent form
Cade Otton's last 4 games: PPR points 22.4, 5.6, 8.8, 8.6 (oldest to newest).
Evan Engram's last 5 games: PPR points 6.1, 7.5, 14.3, 2.7, 0 (oldest to newest).
Otton has already beaten Engram's 7.7 projection in 3 of his 4; Engram has beaten Otton's 8.4 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Cade Otton (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 18.0, spread +3.5.
Evan Engram (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
What flips it
Otton's edge is 0.7 points (8.4 to 7.7). Engram's ceiling (11.7) clears Otton's projection, so a big game from Engram flips it. Otton's floor (5.2) sits under Engram's projection, so a quiet game from Otton flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- Hunter Henry or AJ Barner11.2 · 11.2
- Tucker Kraft or Isaiah Likely12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)