Otton
TE · TB vs GB
Proj pts
8.4pts
market
Mayer
TE · LV vs KC
Proj pts
8.3pts
market
Cade Otton or Michael Mayer: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Cade Otton. Bench Michael Mayer. Cade Otton leads at 8.4. Michael Mayer is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low team total18.0 team total
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Tough matchupTough · D+ vs TE
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is snap share: Otton 94%, Mayer 62%.
Latest game on the card: Otton 8.6, Mayer 12.2 (PPR points).
Why Cade Otton
Start Cade Otton — projects 8.4, an even matchup vs GB.
Cade Otton projects 8.4 points on a 5.2–9.2 range. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 5.4. Net: start Cade Otton this week.
Working against Otton: Low team total (18.0 team total).
Where Otton leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.4 vs 8.3); Target share (18% vs 14%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (C- vs D+); Last 5 avg (11.3 vs 10.5); Targets / game (5.4 vs 3.8); Snap share (94% vs 62%); Red zone targets (7 vs 6); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (C- vs D+).
Why Michael Mayer
Sit Michael Mayer — projects 8.3, a tough matchup vs KC, with a rising role.
Michael Mayer projects 8.3 points on a 5.5–12.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against KC. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: bench Michael Mayer this week.
Working against Mayer: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs TE).
Where Mayer leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.5 vs 5.2); Ceiling (12.1 vs 9.2); Implied team total (21.5 vs 18.0); Last 3 avg (8.9 vs 7.7); vs season (+3.6 vs +3.2); Bust rate (20% vs 27%); Touchdown dependence (7% vs 5%); Implied total (21.5 vs 18.0).
Recent form
Cade Otton's last 4 games: PPR points 22.4, 5.6, 8.8, 8.6 (oldest to newest).
Michael Mayer's last 5 games: PPR points 17.9, 7.7, 9.2, 5.3, 12.2 (oldest to newest).
Otton has already beaten Mayer's 8.3 projection in 3 of his 4; Mayer has beaten Otton's 8.4 in 3 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Cade Otton (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 18.0, spread +3.5.
Michael Mayer (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
What flips it
Otton's edge is 0.1 points (8.4 to 8.3). Mayer's ceiling (12.1) clears Otton's projection, so a big game from Mayer flips it. Otton's floor (5.2) sits under Mayer's projection, so a quiet game from Otton flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- Hunter Henry or AJ Barner11.2 · 11.2
- Tucker Kraft or Isaiah Likely12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)