Okonkwo
TE · WAS vs IND
Proj pts
5.5pts
opportunity
Sample
TE · CIN vs JAX
Proj pts
5.1pts
market
Chig Okonkwo or Drew Sample: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Chig Okonkwo over Drew Sample by 0.4. Chig Okonkwo leads at 5.5. Drew Sample is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Availability & news
Chig OkonkwoPractice: Limited
Okonkwo (hamstring) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs TE
Cons
- Rotational role64% of snaps
- Shaky floor3.9 floor
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage5% target share
- Thin volume1.7 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Okonkwo 5, Sample 1.
Okonkwo (Practice: Limited): “Okonkwo (hamstring) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Okonkwo 3.6 (PPR points).
Why Chig Okonkwo
Start Chig Okonkwo — projects 5.5, a favorable matchup vs IND.
Chig Okonkwo projects 5.5 points on a 3.9–12.4 range. The matchup grades as favorable against IND. Usage: targets / game at 4.6. Net: start Chig Okonkwo this week.
Working for Okonkwo: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs TE).
Working against Okonkwo: Rotational role (64% of snaps), Shaky floor (3.9 floor).
Where Okonkwo leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.5 vs 5.1); Floor (3.9 vs 2.4); Ceiling (12.4 vs 5.6); Target share (15% vs 5%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs B+); Last 3 avg (6.8 vs 3.0); Last 5 avg (8.8 vs 3.0); vs season (+1.5 vs -0.5); Consistency (42% vs 0%); Bust rate (24% vs 42%); Targets / game (4.6 vs 1.7); Snap share (64% vs 56%); Red zone targets (5 vs 1).
Why Drew Sample
Sit Drew Sample — projects 5.1, a favorable matchup vs JAX.
Drew Sample projects 5.1 points on a 2.4–5.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against JAX. Usage: targets / game at 1.7. Net: bench Drew Sample this week.
Working for Sample: High-scoring spot (27.0 team total), Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Sample: Low TE usage (5% target share), Thin volume (1.7 targets/g).
Where Sample leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (27.0 vs 22.5); Boom rate (25% vs 18%); Touchdown dependence (18% vs 10%).
Recent form
Chig Okonkwo's last 5 games: PPR points 7.3, 16.4, 14.5, 2.2, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Drew Sample's last 2 games: PPR points 1, 4.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Okonkwo has already beaten Sample's 5.1 projection in 3 of his 5; Sample has beaten Okonkwo's 5.5 in 0 of his 2.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Chig Okonkwo (WAS) faces IND, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +3.5.
Drew Sample (CIN) faces JAX, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Okonkwo's edge is 0.4 points (5.5 to 5.1). Sample's ceiling (5.6) clears Okonkwo's projection, so a big game from Sample flips it. Okonkwo's floor (3.9) sits under Sample's projection, so a quiet game from Okonkwo flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)