Ertz
TE · PHI vs LA
Proj pts
6.2pts
market
Okonkwo
TE · WAS vs IND
Proj pts
5.5pts
opportunity
Chig Okonkwo or Zach Ertz: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Zach Ertz over Chig Okonkwo by 0.7. Zach Ertz leads at 6.2. Chig Okonkwo is the first one out, 0.6 short.
Availability & news
Zach Ertz
Ertz reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.(rotowire, Sep 29, 2026)
Chig OkonkwoPractice: Limited
Okonkwo (hamstring) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- Spike upside15.0 ceiling
Cons
- Low team total19.5 team total
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs TE
Cons
- Rotational role64% of snaps
- Shaky floor3.9 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touchdown dependence: Ertz 19%, Okonkwo 10%.
Ertz: “Ertz reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.” — RotoWire, Sep 29, 2026.
Okonkwo (Practice: Limited): “Okonkwo (hamstring) was a limited participant at Thursday's practice.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Ertz 1.9, Okonkwo 3.6 (PPR points).
Why Zach Ertz
Start Zach Ertz — projects 6.2, an even matchup vs LA.
Zach Ertz projects 6.2 points on a 5.2–15.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 5.5. Net: start Zach Ertz this week.
Working for Ertz: Spike upside (15.0 ceiling).
Working against Ertz: Low team total (19.5 team total).
Where Ertz leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.2 vs 5.5); Floor (5.2 vs 3.9); Ceiling (15.0 vs 12.4); Target share (19% vs 15%); Last 3 avg (8.2 vs 6.8); Boom rate (23% vs 18%); Bust rate (15% vs 24%); Targets / game (5.5 vs 4.6); Snap share (66% vs 64%); Red zone targets (9 vs 5); Touchdown dependence (19% vs 10%).
Why Chig Okonkwo
Sit Chig Okonkwo — projects 5.5, a favorable matchup vs IND.
Chig Okonkwo projects 5.5 points on a 3.9–12.4 range. The matchup grades as favorable against IND. Usage: targets / game at 4.6. Net: bench Chig Okonkwo this week.
Working for Okonkwo: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs TE).
Working against Okonkwo: Rotational role (64% of snaps), Shaky floor (3.9 floor).
Where Okonkwo leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs C+); Implied team total (22.5 vs 19.5); Last 5 avg (8.8 vs 8.4); vs season (+1.5 vs -0.2); Consistency (42% vs 41%).
Recent form
Zach Ertz's last 5 games: PPR points 9.4, 8.2, 20.6, 2.1, 1.9 (oldest to newest).
Chig Okonkwo's last 5 games: PPR points 7.3, 16.4, 14.5, 2.2, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Ertz has already beaten Okonkwo's 5.5 projection in 3 of his 5; Okonkwo has beaten Ertz's 6.2 in 3 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Zach Ertz (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 19.5, spread +3.5.
Chig Okonkwo (WAS) faces IND, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 22.5, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Ertz's edge is 0.7 points (6.2 to 5.5). Okonkwo's ceiling (12.4) clears Ertz's projection, so a big game from Okonkwo flips it. Ertz's floor (5.2) sits under Okonkwo's projection, so a quiet game from Ertz flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)