Kmet
TE · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
5.4pts
market
Sample
TE · CIN vs JAX
Proj pts
5pts
market
Cole Kmet or Drew Sample: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Cole Kmet over Drew Sample by 0.4. Cole Kmet leads at 5.4. Drew Sample is the first one out, 0.4 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage10% target share
- Thin volume3.0 targets/g
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage5% target share
- Thin volume1.7 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Kmet 9, Sample 1.
Latest game on the card: Kmet 0 (PPR points).
Why Cole Kmet
Start Cole Kmet — projects 5.4, a favorable matchup vs NYJ, but the role is cooling.
Cole Kmet projects 5.4 points on a 2.8–9.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: start Cole Kmet this week.
Working for Kmet: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Kmet: Low TE usage (10% target share), Thin volume (3.0 targets/g).
Where Kmet leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.4 vs 5.0); Floor (2.8 vs 2.4); Ceiling (9.6 vs 5.0); Target share (10% vs 5%); Last 3 avg (3.8 vs 3.0); Last 5 avg (4.1 vs 3.0); Consistency (36% vs 0%); Bust rate (25% vs 42%); Targets / game (3.0 vs 1.7); Snap share (71% vs 56%); Red zone targets (9 vs 1).
Why Drew Sample
Sit Drew Sample — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs JAX.
Drew Sample projects 5.0 points on a 2.4–5.0 range. The matchup grades as favorable against JAX. Usage: targets / game at 1.7. Net: bench Drew Sample this week.
Working for Sample: High-scoring spot (27.0 team total), Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Sample: Low TE usage (5% target share), Thin volume (1.7 targets/g).
Where Sample leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (27.0 vs 23.5); vs season (-0.5 vs -0.8); Touchdown dependence (18% vs 15%).
Recent form
Cole Kmet's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 5.6, 11.5, 0, 0 (oldest to newest).
Drew Sample's last 2 games: PPR points 1, 4.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Kmet has already beaten Sample's 5 projection in 2 of his 5; Sample has beaten Kmet's 5.4 in 0 of his 2.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Cole Kmet (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
Drew Sample (CIN) faces JAX, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Kmet's edge is 0.4 points (5.4 to 5). Kmet's floor (2.8) sits under Sample's projection, so a quiet game from Kmet flips it. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)