Kmet
TE · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
5.4pts
market
Smith
TE · GB vs TB
Proj pts
5pts
market
Cole Kmet or Jonnu Smith: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Cole Kmet over Jonnu Smith by 0.4. Cole Kmet leads at 5.4. Jonnu Smith is the first one out, 0.4 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage10% target share
- Thin volume3.0 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.2 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Kmet 36%, Smith 24%.
Latest game on the card: Kmet 0, Smith 3.6 (PPR points).
Why Cole Kmet
Start Cole Kmet — projects 5.4, a favorable matchup vs NYJ, but the role is cooling.
Cole Kmet projects 5.4 points on a 2.8–9.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: start Cole Kmet this week.
Working for Kmet: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Kmet: Low TE usage (10% target share), Thin volume (3.0 targets/g).
Where Kmet leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.4 vs 5.0); Floor (2.8 vs 1.5); Ceiling (9.6 vs 8.8); Implied team total (23.5 vs 21.5); Consistency (36% vs 24%); Boom rate (25% vs 24%); Bust rate (25% vs 29%); Snap share (71% vs 53%); Red zone targets (9 vs 8); Touchdown dependence (15% vs 14%).
Why Jonnu Smith
Sit Jonnu Smith — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs TB.
Jonnu Smith projects 5.0 points on a 1.5–8.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against TB. Usage: targets / game at 3.2. Net: bench Jonnu Smith this week.
Working for Smith: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs TE).
Working against Smith: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.2 targets/g).
Where Smith leads the head-to-head: Target share (11% vs 10%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs B+); Last 3 avg (4.0 vs 3.8); Last 5 avg (4.9 vs 4.1); vs season (+0.7 vs -0.8); Targets / game (3.2 vs 3.0); Rest / schedule (9 days rest vs Short week (5d)).
Recent form
Cole Kmet's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 5.6, 11.5, 0, 0 (oldest to newest).
Jonnu Smith's last 5 games: PPR points 2.8, 9.7, 1.4, 7, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Kmet has already beaten Smith's 5 projection in 2 of his 5; Smith has beaten Kmet's 5.4 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Cole Kmet (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
Jonnu Smith (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Kmet's edge is 0.4 points (5.4 to 5). Smith's ceiling (8.8) clears Kmet's projection, so a big game from Smith flips it. Kmet's floor (2.8) sits under Smith's projection, so a quiet game from Kmet flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)