Kmet
TE · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
5.4pts
market
Gray
TE · KC vs LV
Proj pts
5.1pts
market
Cole Kmet or Noah Gray: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Cole Kmet over Noah Gray by 0.3. Cole Kmet leads at 5.4. Noah Gray is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage10% target share
- Thin volume3.0 targets/g
Pros
- Big-play upside36% boom weeks
Cons
- Low TE usage8% target share
- Thin volume2.6 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Kmet 9, Gray 3.
Latest game on the card: Kmet 0 (PPR points).
Why Cole Kmet
Start Cole Kmet — projects 5.4, a favorable matchup vs NYJ, but the role is cooling.
Cole Kmet projects 5.4 points on a 2.8–9.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: start Cole Kmet this week.
Working for Kmet: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Kmet: Low TE usage (10% target share), Thin volume (3.0 targets/g).
Where Kmet leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.4 vs 5.1); Floor (2.8 vs 1.2); Ceiling (9.6 vs 6.0); Target share (10% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs D-); Last 3 avg (3.8 vs 2.8); Last 5 avg (4.1 vs 2.8); Consistency (36% vs 29%); Bust rate (25% vs 43%); Targets / game (3.0 vs 2.6); Snap share (71% vs 53%); Red zone targets (9 vs 3); Touchdown dependence (15% vs 0%).
Why Noah Gray
Sit Noah Gray — projects 5.1, a tough matchup vs LV.
Noah Gray projects 5.1 points on a 1.2–6.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against LV. Usage: targets / game at 2.6. Net: bench Noah Gray this week.
Working for Gray: Big-play upside (36% boom weeks).
Working against Gray: Low TE usage (8% target share), Thin volume (2.6 targets/g).
Where Gray leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (26.0 vs 23.5); vs season (-0.1 vs -0.8); Boom rate (36% vs 25%).
Recent form
Cole Kmet's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 5.6, 11.5, 0, 0 (oldest to newest).
Noah Gray's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 1.5, 6.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Kmet has already beaten Gray's 5.1 projection in 2 of his 5; Gray has beaten Kmet's 5.4 in 1 of his 3.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Cole Kmet (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
Noah Gray (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
What flips it
Kmet's edge is 0.3 points (5.4 to 5.1). Gray's ceiling (6) clears Kmet's projection, so a big game from Gray flips it. Kmet's floor (2.8) sits under Gray's projection, so a quiet game from Kmet flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)