Gadsden
TE · LAC vs SEA
Proj pts
5.8pts
opportunity
Kmet
TE · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
5.4pts
market
Cole Kmet or Oronde Gadsden II: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Oronde Gadsden II over Cole Kmet by 0.4. Oronde Gadsden II leads at 5.8. Cole Kmet is the first one out, 0.4 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low team total17.8 team total
- Rotational role63% of snaps
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage10% target share
- Thin volume3.0 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is consistency: Gadsden 17%, Kmet 36%.
Latest game on the card: Gadsden 0, Kmet 0 (PPR points).
Why Oronde Gadsden II
Start Oronde Gadsden II — projects 5.8, an even matchup vs SEA.
Oronde Gadsden II projects 5.8 points on a 2.8–10.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against SEA. Usage: targets / game at 4.6. Net: start Oronde Gadsden II this week.
Working against Gadsden: Low team total (17.8 team total), Rotational role (63% of snaps).
Where Gadsden leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.8 vs 5.4); Ceiling (10.0 vs 9.6); Target share (14% vs 10%); Last 3 avg (5.0 vs 3.8); Last 5 avg (6.3 vs 4.1); vs season (+0.8 vs -0.8); Targets / game (4.6 vs 3.0); Red zone targets (15 vs 9).
Why Cole Kmet
Sit Cole Kmet — projects 5.4, a favorable matchup vs NYJ, but the role is cooling.
Cole Kmet projects 5.4 points on a 2.8–9.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: bench Cole Kmet this week.
Working for Kmet: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Kmet: Low TE usage (10% target share), Thin volume (3.0 targets/g).
Where Kmet leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs B); Implied team total (23.5 vs 17.8); Consistency (36% vs 17%); Boom rate (25% vs 13%); Bust rate (25% vs 47%); Snap share (71% vs 63%); Touchdown dependence (15% vs 14%).
Recent form
Oronde Gadsden II's last 5 games: PPR points 12.2, 4.3, 5.2, 9.8, 0 (oldest to newest).
Cole Kmet's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 5.6, 11.5, 0, 0 (oldest to newest).
Gadsden has already beaten Kmet's 5.4 projection in 2 of his 5; Kmet has beaten Gadsden's 5.8 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) faces SEA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.8, spread +7.0.
Cole Kmet (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Gadsden's edge is 0.4 points (5.8 to 5.4). Kmet's ceiling (9.6) clears Gadsden's projection, so a big game from Kmet flips it. Gadsden's floor (2.8) sits under Kmet's projection, so a quiet game from Gadsden flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)