Hockenson
TE · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
6.9pts
opportunity
Kmet
TE · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
5.4pts
market
Cole Kmet or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
Start T.J. Hockenson. Bench Cole Kmet. T.J. Hockenson leads at 6.9. Cole Kmet is the first one out, 1.5 short.
Crowd: 32% of managers started Hockenson.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Below your start line1.5 pts short
- Low TE usage10% target share
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Hockenson 7.5, Kmet 3.8.
Latest game on the card: Hockenson 3.1, Kmet 0 (PPR points).
Why T.J. Hockenson
Start T.J. Hockenson — projects 6.9, a favorable matchup vs MIA.
T.J. Hockenson projects 6.9 points on a 5.1–11.4 range. The matchup grades as favorable against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: start T.J. Hockenson this week.
Working for Hockenson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Where Hockenson leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.9 vs 5.4); Floor (5.1 vs 2.8); Ceiling (11.4 vs 9.6); Target share (16% vs 10%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs B+); Implied team total (24.5 vs 23.5); Last 3 avg (7.5 vs 3.8); Last 5 avg (6.9 vs 4.1); vs season (-0.2 vs -0.8); Consistency (48% vs 36%); Bust rate (20% vs 25%); Targets / game (4.4 vs 3.0); Snap share (78% vs 71%); Red zone targets (11 vs 9); Touchdown dependence (16% vs 15%).
Why Cole Kmet
Sit Cole Kmet — projects 5.4, a favorable matchup vs NYJ, but the role is cooling.
Cole Kmet projects 5.4 points on a 2.8–9.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: bench Cole Kmet this week.
Working for Kmet: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Kmet: Below your start line (1.5 pts short), Low TE usage (10% target share).
Where Kmet leads the head-to-head: Boom rate (25% vs 13%).
Recent form
T.J. Hockenson's last 5 games: PPR points 10.6, 1.2, 13.6, 5.9, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Cole Kmet's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 5.6, 11.5, 0, 0 (oldest to newest).
Hockenson has already beaten Kmet's 5.4 projection in 3 of his 5; Kmet has beaten Hockenson's 6.9 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
Cole Kmet (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Hockenson's edge is 1.5 points (6.9 to 5.4). Kmet's ceiling (9.6) clears Hockenson's projection, so a big game from Kmet flips it. Hockenson's floor (5.1) sits under Kmet's projection, so a quiet game from Hockenson flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)