Kmet
TE · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
5.4pts
market
Johnson
TE · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
4.5pts
opportunity
Cole Kmet or Theo Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Cole Kmet over Theo Johnson by 0.9. Cole Kmet leads at 5.4. Theo Johnson is the first one out, 0.9 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage10% target share
- Thin volume3.0 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Cons
- Shaky floor4.1 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Kmet 3.8, Johnson 0.6.
Latest game on the card: Kmet 0, Johnson 0 (PPR points).
Why Cole Kmet
Start Cole Kmet — projects 5.4, a favorable matchup vs NYJ, but the role is cooling.
Cole Kmet projects 5.4 points on a 2.8–9.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: start Cole Kmet this week.
Working for Kmet: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Kmet: Low TE usage (10% target share), Thin volume (3.0 targets/g).
Where Kmet leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.4 vs 4.5); Implied team total (23.5 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (3.8 vs 0.6); Last 5 avg (4.1 vs 3.6); vs season (-0.8 vs -3.1); Consistency (36% vs 34%); Boom rate (25% vs 20%).
Why Theo Johnson
Sit Theo Johnson — projects 4.5, a favorable matchup vs ARI, but the role is cooling.
Theo Johnson projects 4.5 points on a 4.1–11.3 range. The matchup grades as favorable against ARI. Usage: targets / game at 4.9. Net: bench Theo Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Working against Johnson: Shaky floor (4.1 floor).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.1 vs 2.8); Ceiling (11.3 vs 9.6); Target share (17% vs 10%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs B+); Bust rate (20% vs 25%); Targets / game (4.9 vs 3.0); Snap share (87% vs 71%); Red zone targets (14 vs 9); Touchdown dependence (24% vs 15%).
Recent form
Cole Kmet's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 5.6, 11.5, 0, 0 (oldest to newest).
Theo Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.9, 10.2, 0, 1.9, 0 (oldest to newest).
Kmet has already beaten Johnson's 4.5 projection in 2 of his 5; Johnson has beaten Kmet's 5.4 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Cole Kmet (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
Theo Johnson (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +1.5.
What flips it
Kmet's edge is 0.9 points (5.4 to 4.5). Johnson's ceiling (11.3) clears Kmet's projection, so a big game from Johnson flips it. Kmet's floor (2.8) sits under Johnson's projection, so a quiet game from Kmet flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)