Tremble
TE · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
5.8pts
market
Kmet
TE · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
5.4pts
market
Cole Kmet or Tommy Tremble: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Tommy Tremble over Cole Kmet by 0.4. Tommy Tremble leads at 5.8. Cole Kmet is the first one out, 0.4 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low TE usage9% target share
- Thin volume2.5 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage10% target share
- Thin volume3.0 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Tremble 47%, Kmet 25%.
Latest game on the card: Kmet 0 (PPR points).
Why Tommy Tremble
Start Tommy Tremble — projects 5.8, an even matchup vs DET.
Tommy Tremble projects 5.8 points on a 1.6–7.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 2.5. Net: start Tommy Tremble this week.
Working against Tremble: Low TE usage (9% target share), Thin volume (2.5 targets/g).
Where Tremble leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.8 vs 5.4); Last 3 avg (4.7 vs 3.8); Last 5 avg (4.7 vs 4.1); vs season (+0.4 vs -0.8); Touchdown dependence (18% vs 15%).
Why Cole Kmet
Sit Cole Kmet — projects 5.4, a favorable matchup vs NYJ, but the role is cooling.
Cole Kmet projects 5.4 points on a 2.8–9.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: bench Cole Kmet this week.
Working for Kmet: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Kmet: Low TE usage (10% target share), Thin volume (3.0 targets/g).
Where Kmet leads the head-to-head: Floor (2.8 vs 1.6); Ceiling (9.6 vs 7.0); Target share (10% vs 9%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs B-); Consistency (36% vs 0%); Boom rate (25% vs 20%); Bust rate (25% vs 47%); Targets / game (3.0 vs 2.5); Snap share (71% vs 60%); Red zone targets (9 vs 5).
Recent form
Tommy Tremble's last 3 games: PPR points 1.4, 5.5, 7.1 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Cole Kmet's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 5.6, 11.5, 0, 0 (oldest to newest).
Tremble has already beaten Kmet's 5.4 projection in 2 of his 3; Kmet has beaten Tremble's 5.8 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Tommy Tremble (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
Cole Kmet (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Tremble's edge is 0.4 points (5.8 to 5.4). Kmet's ceiling (9.6) clears Tremble's projection, so a big game from Kmet flips it. Tremble's floor (1.6) sits under Kmet's projection, so a quiet game from Tremble flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)