Ertz
TE · PHI vs LA
Proj pts
6.2pts
market
Kmet
TE · CHI vs NYJ
Proj pts
5.4pts
market
Cole Kmet or Zach Ertz: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Zach Ertz over Cole Kmet by 0.8. Zach Ertz leads at 6.2. Cole Kmet is the first one out, 0.7 short.
Availability & news
Zach Ertz
Ertz reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.(rotowire, Sep 29, 2026)
Highlights
Pros
- Spike upside15.0 ceiling
Cons
- Low team total19.5 team total
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage10% target share
- Thin volume3.0 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Ertz 8.2, Kmet 3.8.
Ertz: “Ertz reverted to the Eagles' practice squad Tuesday, per the NFL's transaction log.” — RotoWire, Sep 29, 2026.
Latest game on the card: Ertz 1.9, Kmet 0 (PPR points).
Why Zach Ertz
Start Zach Ertz — projects 6.2, an even matchup vs LA.
Zach Ertz projects 6.2 points on a 5.2–15.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 5.5. Net: start Zach Ertz this week.
Working for Ertz: Spike upside (15.0 ceiling).
Working against Ertz: Low team total (19.5 team total).
Where Ertz leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.2 vs 5.4); Floor (5.2 vs 2.8); Ceiling (15.0 vs 9.6); Target share (19% vs 10%); Last 3 avg (8.2 vs 3.8); Last 5 avg (8.4 vs 4.1); vs season (-0.2 vs -0.8); Consistency (41% vs 36%); Bust rate (15% vs 25%); Targets / game (5.5 vs 3.0); Touchdown dependence (19% vs 15%).
Why Cole Kmet
Sit Cole Kmet — projects 5.4, a favorable matchup vs NYJ, but the role is cooling.
Cole Kmet projects 5.4 points on a 2.8–9.6 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYJ. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: bench Cole Kmet this week.
Working for Kmet: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Kmet: Low TE usage (10% target share), Thin volume (3.0 targets/g).
Where Kmet leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs C+); Implied team total (23.5 vs 19.5); Boom rate (25% vs 23%); Snap share (71% vs 66%).
Recent form
Zach Ertz's last 5 games: PPR points 9.4, 8.2, 20.6, 2.1, 1.9 (oldest to newest).
Cole Kmet's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 5.6, 11.5, 0, 0 (oldest to newest).
Ertz has already beaten Kmet's 5.4 projection in 3 of his 5; Kmet has beaten Ertz's 6.2 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Zach Ertz (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 19.5, spread +3.5.
Cole Kmet (CHI) faces NYJ, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread -3.5.
What flips it
Ertz's edge is 0.8 points (6.2 to 5.4). Kmet's ceiling (9.6) clears Ertz's projection, so a big game from Kmet flips it. Ertz's floor (5.2) sits under Kmet's projection, so a quiet game from Ertz flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)