Douglas
WR · NE vs BUF
Proj pts
8.8pts
market
Kupp
WR · SEA vs LAC
Proj pts
8.8pts
market
Cooper Kupp or DeMario Douglas: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean DeMario Douglas over Cooper Kupp; the two are level at 8.8. DeMario Douglas leads at 8.8. Cooper Kupp is the first one out, 0.0 short.
Douglas and Kupp are effectively tied on projection — Douglas gets the start on the tie-break.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share10% target share
- Thin volume2.9 targets/g
Cons
- Thin volume4.4 targets/g
- Tough matchupTough · D+ vs WR
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is snap share: Douglas 26%, Kupp 76%.
Latest game on the card: Kupp 14.6 (PPR points).
Why DeMario Douglas
Start DeMario Douglas — projects 8.8, a tough matchup vs BUF, with a rising role.
DeMario Douglas projects 8.8 points on a 4.8–10.4 range. The matchup grades as tough against BUF. Usage: targets / game at 2.9. Net: start DeMario Douglas this week.
Working against Douglas: Low target share (10% target share), Thin volume (2.9 targets/g).
Where Douglas leads the head-to-head: vs season (+0.8 vs -0.9).
Why Cooper Kupp
Sit Cooper Kupp — projects 8.8, a tough matchup vs LAC.
Cooper Kupp projects 8.8 points on a 4.8–10.8 range. The matchup grades as tough against LAC. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: bench Cooper Kupp this week.
Working against Kupp: Thin volume (4.4 targets/g), Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs WR).
Where Kupp leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (10.8 vs 10.4); Target share (16% vs 10%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (D+ vs D); Implied team total (24.8 vs 20.8); Last 3 avg (8.0 vs 4.6); Last 5 avg (6.1 vs 4.7); Consistency (48% vs 32%); Boom rate (25% vs 12%); Bust rate (19% vs 25%); Targets / game (4.4 vs 2.9); Snap share (76% vs 26%); Red zone targets (16 vs 7).
Recent form
DeMario Douglas's last 4 games: PPR points 1.9, 4.8, 4.9, 7 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Cooper Kupp's last 5 games: PPR points 1.6, 4.9, 5.5, 4, 14.6 (oldest to newest).
Douglas has already beaten Kupp's 8.8 projection in 0 of his 4; Kupp has beaten Douglas's 8.8 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
DeMario Douglas (NE) faces BUF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.8, spread +7.0.
Cooper Kupp (SEA) faces LAC, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 24.8, spread -7.0.
What flips it
Douglas and Kupp are level on projection (8.8). Kupp's ceiling (10.8) clears Douglas's projection, so a big game from Kupp flips it. Douglas's floor (4.8) sits under Kupp's projection, so a quiet game from Douglas flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Mike Evans or Quentin Johnston9.7 · 9.7
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.2 · 15.2
- DJ Moore or DK Metcalf12.5 · 12.5
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- Christian Watson or George Pickens16.8 · 16.8
- Justin Jefferson or KC Concepcion11.1 · 11.1
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)