Kupp
WR · SEA vs LAC
Proj pts
8.8pts
market
Lemon
WR · PHI vs LA
Proj pts
8.4pts
market
Cooper Kupp or Makai Lemon: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Cooper Kupp over Makai Lemon by 0.4. Cooper Kupp leads at 8.8. Makai Lemon is the first one out, 0.4 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Thin volume4.4 targets/g
- Tough matchupTough · D+ vs WR
Pros
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Low target share12% target share
- Thin volume3.0 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Kupp 8.0, Lemon 3.4.
Latest game on the card: Kupp 14.6 (PPR points).
Why Cooper Kupp
Start Cooper Kupp — projects 8.8, a tough matchup vs LAC.
Cooper Kupp projects 8.8 points on a 4.8–10.8 range. The matchup grades as tough against LAC. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: start Cooper Kupp this week.
Working against Kupp: Thin volume (4.4 targets/g), Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs WR).
Where Kupp leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.8 vs 8.4); Target share (16% vs 12%); Implied team total (24.8 vs 20.3); Last 3 avg (8.0 vs 3.4); Last 5 avg (6.1 vs 3.4); Targets / game (4.4 vs 3.0); Snap share (76% vs 66%); Red zone targets (16 vs 0).
Why Makai Lemon
Sit Makai Lemon — projects 8.4, an even matchup vs LA.
Makai Lemon projects 8.4 points. The matchup grades as neutral against LA. Usage: targets / game at 3.0. Net: bench Makai Lemon this week.
Working for Lemon: Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Lemon: Low target share (12% target share), Thin volume (3.0 targets/g).
Where Lemon leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs D+); vs season (+0.0 vs -0.9); Consistency (49% vs 48%); Boom rate (33% vs 25%); Bust rate (0% vs 19%).
Recent form
Cooper Kupp's last 5 games: PPR points 1.6, 4.9, 5.5, 4, 14.6 (oldest to newest).
Makai Lemon's last 3 games: PPR points 1.9, 2.5, 5.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Kupp has already beaten Lemon's 8.4 projection in 1 of his 5; Lemon has beaten Kupp's 8.8 in 0 of his 3.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Cooper Kupp (SEA) faces LAC, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 24.8, spread -7.0.
Makai Lemon (PHI) faces LA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 20.3, spread +3.0.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Mike Evans or Quentin Johnston9.7 · 9.7
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.2 · 15.2
- DJ Moore or DK Metcalf12.5 · 12.5
- Tee Higgins or Zay Flowers16.5 · 16.5
- Christian Watson or George Pickens16.8 · 16.8
- Justin Jefferson or KC Concepcion11.1 · 11.1
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)