Kupp
WR · SEA vs LAC
Proj pts
8.8pts
market
Bryant
WR · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
8.3pts
market
Cooper Kupp or Pat Bryant: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Cooper Kupp over Pat Bryant by 0.5. Cooper Kupp leads at 8.8. Pat Bryant is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Thin volume4.4 targets/g
- Tough matchupTough · D+ vs WR
Cons
- Low target share11% target share
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Kupp 16, Bryant 8.
Latest game on the card: Kupp 14.6 (PPR points).
Why Cooper Kupp
Start Cooper Kupp — projects 8.8, a tough matchup vs LAC.
Cooper Kupp projects 8.8 points on a 4.8–10.8 range. The matchup grades as tough against LAC. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: start Cooper Kupp this week.
Working against Kupp: Thin volume (4.4 targets/g), Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs WR).
Where Kupp leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.8 vs 8.3); Target share (16% vs 11%); Implied team total (24.8 vs 22.3); Consistency (48% vs 30%); Bust rate (19% vs 25%); Targets / game (4.4 vs 3.8); Snap share (76% vs 53%); Red zone targets (16 vs 8).
Why Pat Bryant
Sit Pat Bryant — projects 8.3, an even matchup vs SF.
Pat Bryant projects 8.3 points on a 7.2–13.1 range. The matchup grades as neutral against SF. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: bench Pat Bryant this week.
Working against Bryant: Low target share (11% target share), Thin volume (3.8 targets/g).
Where Bryant leads the head-to-head: Floor (7.2 vs 4.8); Ceiling (13.1 vs 10.8); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs D+); Last 3 avg (8.1 vs 8.0); Last 5 avg (8.1 vs 6.1); vs season (-0.5 vs -0.9).
Recent form
Cooper Kupp's last 5 games: PPR points 1.6, 4.9, 5.5, 4, 14.6 (oldest to newest).
Pat Bryant's last 3 games: PPR points 1.6, 8.2, 14.4 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Kupp has already beaten Bryant's 8.3 projection in 1 of his 5; Bryant has beaten Kupp's 8.8 in 1 of his 3.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Cooper Kupp (SEA) faces LAC, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 24.8, spread -7.0.
Pat Bryant (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
What flips it
Kupp's edge is 0.5 points (8.8 to 8.3). Bryant's ceiling (13.1) clears Kupp's projection, so a big game from Bryant flips it. Kupp's floor (4.8) sits under Bryant's projection, so a quiet game from Kupp flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Mike Evans or Quentin Johnston9.7 · 9.7
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.2 · 15.2
- DJ Moore or DK Metcalf12.5 · 12.5
- Tee Higgins or Zay Flowers16.5 · 16.5
- Christian Watson or George Pickens16.8 · 16.8
- Justin Jefferson or KC Concepcion11.1 · 11.1
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)