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Week8 · 2026

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Scoring

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Start

McBride

TE · ARI @ DAL

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points19.4pts

First out

Goedert

TE · PHI @ WAS

Kickoff Sun 8:20 PM ET

Projected points11.2ptsUsage estimate

Start

Bench

Dallas Goedert or Trey McBride: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Start Trey McBride over Dallas Goedert.

Ahead by: +8.2pts; over Goedert
Confidence: High; The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Started: 99%; of leagues

Goedert's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Flips if

An injury tag on Trey McBride or a bigger role for Dallas Goedert.

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 2:00 PM ET

McBrideStartTE · ARI @ DALUsually 18.6+0.8pts this week

Helps him

+1.1ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.76 touchdowns, above his usual 0.57.
+0.6ptsrec yardsHis lines put him at 73.5 receiving yards, above his usual 67.4.
30%targetsHe draws 30% of his team’s targets, a lead share for a tight end.
11.1per gameHe sees 11.1 targets a game.

Hurts him

−0.9ptscatchesHis lines put him at 7.5 catches, below his usual 8.4.
7th softestper targetEdgeDAL allows few TE chances because few passes go to tight ends against them; per target they’re soft (1.90 pts, 7th softest).

GoedertFirst outTE · PHI @ WASUsually 13.8−2.7pts this week

Helps him

+1.0ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
WASvs TEsEdgeWAS is the 2nd softest defense for tight ends.

Hurts him

−1.6ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
−1.5ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
−0.5ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
17.0team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 17.0 points.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Scoring

Projection19.411.2

TD pointsof the projection4.6Our estimate

Expected TDsthis week0.76Our estimate

Projected team points23.817.0

Red zone targetsper game2.40.6

Role

Snap share91%69%

Usage worthpts19.39.8

Target share30%18%

Targets / game11.16.2

Air yards share24%13%

Vacated targets this week3.30.0

RZ target share30%30%

Inside 10 target share35%0%

Catch rate76%71%

Separation2.2 yds2.9 yds

YAC over expected+0.4+1.0

Usage worth vs scoredEarned by usage 19.3Scored 18.6Earned by usage 9.8Scored 11.4

Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsIn lineAbove

WOPR0.620.37

Range

Floor12.87.1

Ceiling29.718.0

Points from TDssteadier when lower18%21%

Big weeks (15+ pts)71%20%

Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is better0%20%

SteadinessVery steady±6.2 pts · 7 gamesUp & down±8.0 pts · 5 games

Matchup

Matchup gradevs his positionC+2026, 7 gmA+2026, 6 gm

Game scriptExpected to trailExpected to trail

Opp takeaways / gamelower is better0.61.3

Defense funnelNeutralNeutral

Opp pass yds allowed15th (average)28th (soft)

Starting QBBrissett (Active)McKee (Active)

Opp defender outBullard (DE)Kinlaw (DT)

Roof / surfaceRetractable roofturfOpengrass

Rest / scheduleNormalNormal

Opp pace9th (fast)12th (average)

Opp deep targets allowed / game0.14th (tough)0.514th (average)

Opp catch rate allowed80%30th (soft)76%23rd (soft)

Form

Last 3 avg20.310.6

Last 5 avg17.511.4

vs season+1.7 (Rising)−0.8 (Cooling)

Yards per route run1.792.04

Receiving aDOT5.95.5

Target share trendRisingSteady

Crowd

Started in leagues99%82%

Nuvela position ranklower is betterTE1TE5

Yards linereceiving73.5Our estimate

Deciding on someone else?

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