Washington
TE · PIT vs CLE
Proj pts
6.7pts
market
Gray
TE · KC vs LV
Proj pts
5.1pts
market
Darnell Washington or Noah Gray: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Darnell Washington. Bench Noah Gray. Darnell Washington leads at 6.7. Noah Gray is the first one out, 1.6 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.3 targets/g
Pros
- Big-play upside36% boom weeks
Cons
- Below your start line1.6 pts short
- Low TE usage8% target share
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Washington 9, Gray 3.
Why Darnell Washington
Start Darnell Washington — projects 6.7, a tough matchup vs CLE.
Darnell Washington projects 6.7 points on a 3.0–9.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against CLE. Usage: targets / game at 3.3. Net: start Darnell Washington this week.
Working against Washington: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.3 targets/g).
Where Washington leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.7 vs 5.1); Floor (3.0 vs 1.2); Ceiling (9.1 vs 6.0); Target share (11% vs 8%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (D+ vs D-); Last 3 avg (5.1 vs 2.8); Last 5 avg (5.1 vs 2.8); vs season (+0.7 vs -0.1); Consistency (51% vs 29%); Bust rate (25% vs 43%); Targets / game (3.3 vs 2.6); Snap share (60% vs 53%); Red zone targets (9 vs 3); Touchdown dependence (8% vs 0%).
Why Noah Gray
Sit Noah Gray — projects 5.1, a tough matchup vs LV.
Noah Gray projects 5.1 points on a 1.2–6.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against LV. Usage: targets / game at 2.6. Net: bench Noah Gray this week.
Working for Gray: Big-play upside (36% boom weeks).
Working against Gray: Below your start line (1.6 pts short), Low TE usage (8% target share).
Where Gray leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (26.0 vs 20.5); Boom rate (36% vs 25%).
Recent form
Darnell Washington's last 3 games: PPR points 1.7, 3.8, 9.7 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Noah Gray's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 1.5, 6.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Washington has already beaten Gray's 5.1 projection in 1 of his 3; Gray has beaten Washington's 6.7 in 1 of his 3.
Matchup
Darnell Washington (PIT) faces CLE, kickoff Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.
Noah Gray (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
What flips it
Washington's edge is 1.6 points (6.7 to 5.1). Washington's floor (3) sits under Gray's projection, so a quiet game from Washington flips it. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)