Hockenson
TE · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
6.9pts
opportunity
Washington
TE · PIT vs CLE
Proj pts
6.7pts
market
Darnell Washington or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean T.J. Hockenson over Darnell Washington by 0.2. T.J. Hockenson leads at 6.9. Darnell Washington is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Crowd: 32% of managers started Hockenson.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.3 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touchdown dependence: Hockenson 16%, Washington 8%.
Latest game on the card: Hockenson 3.1 (PPR points).
Why T.J. Hockenson
Start T.J. Hockenson — projects 6.9, a favorable matchup vs MIA.
T.J. Hockenson projects 6.9 points on a 5.1–11.4 range. The matchup grades as favorable against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: start T.J. Hockenson this week.
Working for Hockenson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Where Hockenson leads the head-to-head: Projection (6.9 vs 6.7); Floor (5.1 vs 3.0); Ceiling (11.4 vs 9.1); Target share (16% vs 11%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs D+); Implied team total (24.5 vs 20.5); Last 3 avg (7.5 vs 5.1); Last 5 avg (6.9 vs 5.1); Bust rate (20% vs 25%); Targets / game (4.4 vs 3.3); Snap share (78% vs 60%); Red zone targets (11 vs 9); Touchdown dependence (16% vs 8%).
Why Darnell Washington
Sit Darnell Washington — projects 6.7, a tough matchup vs CLE.
Darnell Washington projects 6.7 points on a 3.0–9.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against CLE. Usage: targets / game at 3.3. Net: bench Darnell Washington this week.
Working against Washington: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.3 targets/g).
Where Washington leads the head-to-head: vs season (+0.7 vs -0.2); Consistency (51% vs 48%); Boom rate (25% vs 13%).
Recent form
T.J. Hockenson's last 5 games: PPR points 10.6, 1.2, 13.6, 5.9, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Darnell Washington's last 3 games: PPR points 1.7, 3.8, 9.7 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Hockenson has already beaten Washington's 6.7 projection in 2 of his 5; Washington has beaten Hockenson's 6.9 in 1 of his 3.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
Darnell Washington (PIT) faces CLE, kickoff Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Hockenson's edge is 0.2 points (6.9 to 6.7). Washington's ceiling (9.1) clears Hockenson's projection, so a big game from Washington flips it. Hockenson's floor (5.1) sits under Washington's projection, so a quiet game from Hockenson flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
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- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
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- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)