Sample
TE · CIN vs JAX
Proj pts
5pts
market
Waller
TE · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
3.5pts
opportunity
Darren Waller or Drew Sample: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Drew Sample. Bench Darren Waller. Drew Sample leads at 5.0. Darren Waller is the first one out, 1.4 short.
Crowd: 54% of managers started Waller.
Highlights
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage5% target share
- Thin volume1.7 targets/g
Pros
- Spike upside15.4 ceiling
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Rotational role45% of snaps
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Sample 1, Waller 8.
Latest game on the card: Waller 10.1 (PPR points).
Why Drew Sample
Start Drew Sample — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs JAX.
Drew Sample projects 5.0 points on a 2.4–5.0 range. The matchup grades as favorable against JAX. Usage: targets / game at 1.7. Net: start Drew Sample this week.
Working for Sample: High-scoring spot (27.0 team total), Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Sample: Low TE usage (5% target share), Thin volume (1.7 targets/g).
Where Sample leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.0 vs 3.5); Floor (2.4 vs 0.8); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs B-); Implied team total (27.0 vs 23.5); Snap share (56% vs 45%).
Why Darren Waller
Sit Darren Waller — projects 3.5, an even matchup vs DET.
Darren Waller projects 3.5 points on a 0.8–15.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: bench Darren Waller this week.
Working for Waller: Spike upside (15.4 ceiling), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Waller: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Rotational role (45% of snaps).
Where Waller leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (15.4 vs 5.0); Target share (15% vs 5%); Last 3 avg (11.1 vs 3.0); Last 5 avg (8.2 vs 3.0); vs season (-0.3 vs -0.5); Consistency (15% vs 0%); Boom rate (33% vs 25%); Bust rate (33% vs 42%); Targets / game (3.8 vs 1.7); Red zone targets (8 vs 1); Touchdown dependence (41% vs 18%).
Recent form
Drew Sample's last 2 games: PPR points 1, 4.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Darren Waller's last 5 games: PPR points 7, 1, 4.8, 18.3, 10.1 (oldest to newest).
Sample has already beaten Waller's 3.5 projection in 1 of his 2; Waller has beaten Sample's 5 in 3 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Drew Sample (CIN) faces JAX, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -2.5.
Darren Waller (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Sample's edge is 1.5 points (5 to 3.5). Waller's ceiling (15.4) clears Sample's projection, so a big game from Waller flips it. Sample's floor (2.4) sits under Waller's projection, so a quiet game from Sample flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)