Smith
TE · GB vs TB
Proj pts
5pts
market
Waller
TE · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
3.5pts
opportunity
Darren Waller or Jonnu Smith: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Jonnu Smith. Bench Darren Waller. Jonnu Smith leads at 5.0. Darren Waller is the first one out, 1.5 short.
Crowd: 54% of managers started Waller.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.2 targets/g
Pros
- Spike upside15.4 ceiling
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Rotational role45% of snaps
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touchdown dependence: Smith 14%, Waller 41%.
Latest game on the card: Smith 3.6, Waller 10.1 (PPR points).
Why Jonnu Smith
Start Jonnu Smith — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs TB.
Jonnu Smith projects 5.0 points on a 1.5–8.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against TB. Usage: targets / game at 3.2. Net: start Jonnu Smith this week.
Working for Smith: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs TE).
Working against Smith: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.2 targets/g).
Where Smith leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.0 vs 3.5); Floor (1.5 vs 0.8); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs B-); vs season (+0.7 vs -0.3); Consistency (24% vs 15%); Bust rate (29% vs 33%); Snap share (53% vs 45%).
Why Darren Waller
Sit Darren Waller — projects 3.5, an even matchup vs DET.
Darren Waller projects 3.5 points on a 0.8–15.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: bench Darren Waller this week.
Working for Waller: Spike upside (15.4 ceiling), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Waller: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Rotational role (45% of snaps).
Where Waller leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (15.4 vs 8.8); Target share (15% vs 11%); Implied team total (23.5 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (11.1 vs 4.0); Last 5 avg (8.2 vs 4.9); Boom rate (33% vs 24%); Targets / game (3.8 vs 3.2); Touchdown dependence (41% vs 14%).
Recent form
Jonnu Smith's last 5 games: PPR points 2.8, 9.7, 1.4, 7, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Darren Waller's last 5 games: PPR points 7, 1, 4.8, 18.3, 10.1 (oldest to newest).
Smith has already beaten Waller's 3.5 projection in 3 of his 5; Waller has beaten Smith's 5 in 3 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Jonnu Smith (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.
Darren Waller (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Smith's edge is 1.5 points (5 to 3.5). Waller's ceiling (15.4) clears Smith's projection, so a big game from Waller flips it. Smith's floor (1.5) sits under Waller's projection, so a quiet game from Smith flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)