Waller
TE · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
9.6pts
market
Mayer
TE · LV vs KC
Proj pts
8.2pts
market
Darren Waller or Michael Mayer: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Darren Waller. Bench Michael Mayer. Darren Waller leads at 9.6. Michael Mayer is the first one out, 1.3 short.
Crowd: 58% of managers started Waller.
Availability & news
Darren WallerPractice: DNP
Highlights
Pros
- Spike upside15.4 ceiling
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Rotational role45% of snaps
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Tough matchupTough · D+ vs TE
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touchdown dependence: Waller 41%, Mayer 7%.
Waller is listed: Practice: DNP.
Latest game on the card: Waller 10.1, Mayer 12.2 (PPR points).
Why Darren Waller
Start Darren Waller — projects 9.6, an even matchup vs DET.
Darren Waller projects 9.6 points on a 4.2–15.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: start Darren Waller this week.
Working for Waller: Spike upside (15.4 ceiling), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Waller: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Rotational role (45% of snaps).
Where Waller leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.6 vs 8.2); Ceiling (15.4 vs 12.1); Target share (15% vs 14%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs D+); Implied team total (23.5 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (11.1 vs 8.9); Boom rate (33% vs 20%); Red zone targets (8 vs 6); Touchdown dependence (41% vs 7%).
Why Michael Mayer
Sit Michael Mayer — projects 8.2, a tough matchup vs KC, with a rising role.
Michael Mayer projects 8.2 points on a 5.5–12.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against KC. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: bench Michael Mayer this week.
Working against Mayer: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs TE).
Where Mayer leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.5 vs 4.2); Last 5 avg (10.5 vs 8.2); vs season (+3.6 vs -0.3); Consistency (31% vs 15%); Bust rate (20% vs 33%); Snap share (62% vs 45%).
Recent form
Darren Waller's last 5 games: PPR points 7, 1, 4.8, 18.3, 10.1 (oldest to newest).
Michael Mayer's last 5 games: PPR points 17.9, 7.7, 9.2, 5.3, 12.2 (oldest to newest).
Waller has already beaten Mayer's 8.2 projection in 2 of his 5; Mayer has beaten Waller's 9.6 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Darren Waller (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
Michael Mayer (LV) faces KC, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +4.5.
What flips it
Waller's edge is 1.4 points (9.6 to 8.2). Mayer's ceiling (12.1) clears Waller's projection, so a big game from Mayer flips it. Waller's floor (4.2) sits under Mayer's projection, so a quiet game from Waller flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)