Waller
TE · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
9.6pts
market
Gesicki
TE · CIN vs JAX
Proj pts
9.5pts
market
Darren Waller or Mike Gesicki: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Darren Waller over Mike Gesicki by 0.1. Darren Waller leads at 9.6. Mike Gesicki is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Crowd: 58% of managers started Waller.
Availability & news
Darren WallerPractice: DNP
Highlights
Pros
- Spike upside15.4 ceiling
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Rotational role45% of snaps
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
- Spike upside18.5 ceiling
Cons
- Low TE usage10% target share
- Thin volume3.5 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touchdown dependence: Waller 41%, Gesicki 17%.
Waller is listed: Practice: DNP.
Latest game on the card: Waller 10.1 (PPR points).
Why Darren Waller
Start Darren Waller — projects 9.6, an even matchup vs DET.
Darren Waller projects 9.6 points on a 4.2–15.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: start Darren Waller this week.
Working for Waller: Spike upside (15.4 ceiling), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Waller: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Rotational role (45% of snaps).
Where Waller leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.6 vs 9.5); Target share (15% vs 10%); Consistency (15% vs 7%); Boom rate (33% vs 18%); Bust rate (33% vs 36%); Targets / game (3.8 vs 3.5); Snap share (45% vs 42%); Touchdown dependence (41% vs 17%).
Why Mike Gesicki
Sit Mike Gesicki — projects 9.5, a favorable matchup vs JAX.
Mike Gesicki projects 9.5 points on a 4.3–18.5 range. The matchup grades as favorable against JAX. Usage: targets / game at 3.5. Net: bench Mike Gesicki this week.
Working for Gesicki: High-scoring spot (27.0 team total), Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE), Spike upside (18.5 ceiling).
Working against Gesicki: Low TE usage (10% target share), Thin volume (3.5 targets/g).
Where Gesicki leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.3 vs 4.2); Ceiling (18.5 vs 15.4); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs B-); Implied team total (27.0 vs 23.5); Last 3 avg (15.8 vs 11.1); Last 5 avg (10.4 vs 8.2); vs season (+0.6 vs -0.3).
Recent form
Darren Waller's last 5 games: PPR points 7, 1, 4.8, 18.3, 10.1 (oldest to newest).
Mike Gesicki's last 4 games: PPR points 3.3, 6.7, 12.7, 18.8 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Waller has already beaten Gesicki's 9.5 projection in 2 of his 5; Gesicki has beaten Waller's 9.6 in 2 of his 4.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Darren Waller (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
Mike Gesicki (CIN) faces JAX, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Waller's edge is 0.1 points (9.6 to 9.5). Gesicki's ceiling (18.5) clears Waller's projection, so a big game from Gesicki flips it. Waller's floor (4.2) sits under Gesicki's projection, so a quiet game from Waller flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)