Waller
TE · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
9.6pts
market
Gadsden
TE · LAC vs SEA
Proj pts
8.8pts
market
Darren Waller or Oronde Gadsden II: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Darren Waller over Oronde Gadsden II by 0.8. Darren Waller leads at 9.6. Oronde Gadsden II is the first one out, 0.7 short.
Crowd: 58% of managers started Waller.
Availability & news
Darren WallerPractice: DNP
Highlights
Pros
- Spike upside15.4 ceiling
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Rotational role45% of snaps
Cons
- Low team total17.8 team total
- Rotational role63% of snaps
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touchdown dependence: Waller 41%, Gadsden 14%.
Waller is listed: Practice: DNP.
Latest game on the card: Waller 10.1, Gadsden 0 (PPR points).
Why Darren Waller
Start Darren Waller — projects 9.6, an even matchup vs DET.
Darren Waller projects 9.6 points on a 4.2–15.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: start Darren Waller this week.
Working for Waller: Spike upside (15.4 ceiling), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Waller: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Rotational role (45% of snaps).
Where Waller leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.6 vs 8.8); Floor (4.2 vs 2.8); Ceiling (15.4 vs 10.0); Target share (15% vs 14%); Implied team total (23.5 vs 17.8); Last 3 avg (11.1 vs 5.0); Last 5 avg (8.2 vs 6.3); Boom rate (33% vs 13%); Bust rate (33% vs 47%); Touchdown dependence (41% vs 14%).
Why Oronde Gadsden II
Sit Oronde Gadsden II — projects 8.8, an even matchup vs SEA.
Oronde Gadsden II projects 8.8 points on a 2.8–10.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against SEA. Usage: targets / game at 4.6. Net: bench Oronde Gadsden II this week.
Working against Gadsden: Low team total (17.8 team total), Rotational role (63% of snaps).
Where Gadsden leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs B-); vs season (+0.8 vs -0.3); Consistency (17% vs 15%); Targets / game (4.6 vs 3.8); Snap share (63% vs 45%); Red zone targets (15 vs 8).
Recent form
Darren Waller's last 5 games: PPR points 7, 1, 4.8, 18.3, 10.1 (oldest to newest).
Oronde Gadsden II's last 5 games: PPR points 12.2, 4.3, 5.2, 9.8, 0 (oldest to newest).
Waller has already beaten Gadsden's 8.8 projection in 2 of his 5; Gadsden has beaten Waller's 9.6 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Darren Waller (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) faces SEA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.8, spread +7.0.
What flips it
Waller's edge is 0.8 points (9.6 to 8.8). Gadsden's ceiling (10) clears Waller's projection, so a big game from Gadsden flips it. Waller's floor (4.2) sits under Gadsden's projection, so a quiet game from Waller flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)