Freiermuth
TE · PIT vs CLE
Final pts
10.7pts
10.2 proj · +0.5
Waller
TE · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
9.6pts
market
Darren Waller or Pat Freiermuth: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Pat Freiermuth over Darren Waller by 0.6. Pat Freiermuth leads at 10.2. Darren Waller is the first one out, 0.6 short.
Crowd: 58% of managers started Waller.
Availability & news
Darren WallerPractice: DNP
Highlights
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.6 targets/g
Pros
- Spike upside15.4 ceiling
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Rotational role45% of snaps
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Freiermuth 13%, Waller 33%.
Waller is listed: Practice: DNP.
Latest game on the card: Waller 10.1 (PPR points).
Why Pat Freiermuth
Start Pat Freiermuth — projects 10.2, a tough matchup vs CLE.
Pat Freiermuth projects 10.2 points on a 6.1–12.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against CLE. Usage: targets / game at 3.6. Net: start Pat Freiermuth this week.
Working against Freiermuth: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.6 targets/g).
Where Freiermuth leads the head-to-head: Projection (10.2 vs 9.6); Floor (6.1 vs 4.2); Last 5 avg (9.4 vs 8.2); vs season (+1.7 vs -0.3); Consistency (18% vs 15%); Bust rate (27% vs 33%); Snap share (52% vs 45%); Red zone targets (9 vs 8).
Why Darren Waller
Sit Darren Waller — projects 9.6, an even matchup vs DET.
Darren Waller projects 9.6 points on a 4.2–15.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: bench Darren Waller this week.
Working for Waller: Spike upside (15.4 ceiling), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Waller: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Rotational role (45% of snaps).
Where Waller leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (15.4 vs 12.0); Target share (15% vs 11%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs D+); Implied team total (23.5 vs 20.5); Last 3 avg (11.1 vs 9.4); Boom rate (33% vs 13%); Targets / game (3.8 vs 3.6); Touchdown dependence (41% vs 21%).
Recent form
Pat Freiermuth's last 3 games: PPR points 5.1, 7.4, 15.6 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Darren Waller's last 5 games: PPR points 7, 1, 4.8, 18.3, 10.1 (oldest to newest).
Freiermuth has already beaten Waller's 9.6 projection in 1 of his 3; Waller has beaten Freiermuth's 10.2 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) played CLE (final: CLE 27 – 24 PIT). The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.5, spread -2.5.
Darren Waller (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Freiermuth's edge is 0.6 points (10.2 to 9.6). Waller's ceiling (15.4) clears Freiermuth's projection, so a big game from Waller flips it. Freiermuth's floor (6.1) sits under Waller's projection, so a quiet game from Freiermuth flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
More Pat Freiermuth comparisons
- AJ Barner or Pat Freiermuth11.0 · 10.2
- Hunter Henry or Pat Freiermuth11.2 · 10.2
- Colston Loveland or Pat Freiermuth11.4 · 10.2
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)