Johnson
TE · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
4.5pts
opportunity
Waller
TE · CAR vs DET
Proj pts
3.5pts
opportunity
Darren Waller or Theo Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Theo Johnson. Bench Darren Waller. Theo Johnson leads at 4.5. Darren Waller is the first one out, 1.0 short.
Crowd: 54% of managers started Waller.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Cons
- Shaky floor4.1 floor
Pros
- Spike upside15.4 ceiling
- Big-play upside33% boom weeks
Cons
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
- Rotational role45% of snaps
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Johnson 0.6, Waller 11.1.
Latest game on the card: Johnson 0, Waller 10.1 (PPR points).
Why Theo Johnson
Start Theo Johnson — projects 4.5, a favorable matchup vs ARI, but the role is cooling.
Theo Johnson projects 4.5 points on a 4.1–11.3 range. The matchup grades as favorable against ARI. Usage: targets / game at 4.9. Net: start Theo Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Working against Johnson: Shaky floor (4.1 floor).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Projection (4.5 vs 3.5); Floor (4.1 vs 0.8); Target share (17% vs 15%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs B-); Consistency (34% vs 15%); Bust rate (20% vs 33%); Targets / game (4.9 vs 3.8); Snap share (87% vs 45%); Red zone targets (14 vs 8).
Why Darren Waller
Sit Darren Waller — projects 3.5, an even matchup vs DET.
Darren Waller projects 3.5 points on a 0.8–15.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against DET. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: bench Darren Waller this week.
Working for Waller: Spike upside (15.4 ceiling), Big-play upside (33% boom weeks).
Working against Waller: Thin volume (3.8 targets/g), Rotational role (45% of snaps).
Where Waller leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (15.4 vs 11.3); Implied team total (23.5 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (11.1 vs 0.6); Last 5 avg (8.2 vs 3.6); vs season (-0.3 vs -3.1); Boom rate (33% vs 20%); Touchdown dependence (41% vs 24%).
Recent form
Theo Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.9, 10.2, 0, 1.9, 0 (oldest to newest).
Darren Waller's last 5 games: PPR points 7, 1, 4.8, 18.3, 10.1 (oldest to newest).
Johnson has already beaten Waller's 3.5 projection in 2 of his 5; Waller has beaten Johnson's 4.5 in 4 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Theo Johnson (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +1.5.
Darren Waller (CAR) faces DET, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 23.5, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Johnson's edge is 1 points (4.5 to 3.5). Waller's ceiling (15.4) clears Johnson's projection, so a big game from Waller flips it. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)