Knox
TE · BUF vs BAL
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points3.3pts
Hibner
TE · BAL @ BUF
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ETNo game status yet, practice Full
Projected points3.4ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Dawson Knox or Matthew Hibner: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Need a safe week? Dawson Knox. Swinging for a big week? Matthew Hibner.
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Hibner's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Hibner
Knox has the safer floor (1.3 to 1.0); Hibner has more upside (a ceiling of 6.5 to 5.7).
Flips if
Start Matthew Hibner instead if you want a defense that gives up more deep shots (0.7 a game to 0.0).
Risk
Matthew Hibner has played 1 game since missing time.
Highlights
KnoxToss-upTE · BUF vs BALUsually 2.9+0.3pts this week
Helps him
- 28.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 28.8 points, a high scoring spot.
Hurts him
- 7%targetsHe draws only 7% of his team’s targets.
- 1.7per gameHe sees only 1.7 targets a game.
HibnerFirst outTE · BAL @ BUFUsually 3.0+0.4pts this week
Helps him
- 1sthighest totalEdgeHe plays in the highest scoring game on the slate.
Hurts him
- 4%targetsHe draws only 4% of his team’s targets.
- 0.8per gameHe sees only 0.8 targets a game.
EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionKnox: 3.3Hibner: 3.4 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionKnox: 1.0Hibner: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekKnox: 0.17Hibner: Our estimate
Projected team pointsKnox: 28.8 (best)Hibner: 25.8
Red zone targetsper gameKnox: 0.5 (best)Hibner: 0.2
Role
Snap shareKnox: 69% (best)Hibner: 42%
Usage worthptsKnox: 3.1 (best)Hibner: 1.5
Target shareKnox: 7% (best)Hibner: 4%
Targets / gameKnox: 1.7 (best)Hibner: 0.8
Air yards shareKnox: 3% (best)Hibner: 2%
Vacated targets this weekKnox: 0.0Hibner: 0.7 (best)
RZ target shareKnox: 12% (best)Hibner: 4%
Inside 10 target shareKnox: 17% (best)Hibner: 9%
Catch rateKnox: 80%Hibner: 100% (best)
Usage worth vs scoredKnox: Earned by usage 3.1Scored 2.9Hibner: Earned by usage 1.5Scored 3.0
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsKnox: AboveHibner: 1 RZ target
WOPRKnox: 0.13 (best)Hibner: 0.07
Range
FloorKnox: 1.3 (best)Hibner: 1.0
CeilingKnox: 5.7Hibner: 6.5 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerKnox: 34%Hibner: 33%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Knox: 8% (best)Hibner: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterKnox: 66% (best)Hibner: 67%
SteadinessKnox: Volatile (best)±4.8 ptsHibner: Volatile±4.2 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionKnox: C (best)2026, 7 gmHibner: D+2026, 6 gm
Game scriptKnox: Expected to lead (best)Hibner: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterKnox: 0.9 (best)Hibner: 1.0
Defense funnelKnox: PassHibner: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedKnox: 15th (average)Hibner: 31st (soft) (best)
Starting QBKnox: Allen (Active)Hibner: Huntley (Active)
Opp defender outKnox: Robinson (LB)Hibner: None listed
Roof / surfaceturfKnox: OpenHibner: Open
Rest / scheduleKnox: Off a byeHibner: Normal
Opp paceKnox: 17th (average) (best)Hibner: 24th (slow)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameKnox: 0.01st (tough)Hibner: 0.7 (best)23rd (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedKnox: 76% (best)25th (soft)Hibner: 68%8th (tough)
Form
Last 3 avgKnox: 2.0 (best)Hibner: 1.8
Last 5 avgKnox: 3.2 (best)Hibner: 3.1
vs seasonKnox: −1.0 (Cooling) (best)Hibner: −1.2 (Cooling)
Yards per route runKnox: 0.46Hibner: 1.79 (best)
Receiving aDOTKnox: 4.0Hibner: 5.0
Target share trendKnox: SteadyHibner: Steady
Games since injuryKnox: None recentlyHibner: 1
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterKnox: TE43Hibner: TE40 (best)
Yards linereceivingKnox: 7.5Hibner: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.