Knox
TE · BUF vs BAL
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points3.3pts
Adkins
TE · DEN vs KC
Kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET
Projected points3.0ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Dawson Knox or Nate Adkins: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Need a safe week? Dawson Knox. Swinging for a big week? Nate Adkins.
- Ahead by
- +0.3pts
- over Adkins
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Adkins's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Adkins
Knox has the safer floor (1.3 to 0.8); Adkins has more upside (a ceiling of 6.2 to 5.7).
Flips if
Start Nate Adkins instead if you want a defense that gives up more deep shots (0.8 a game to 0.0).
Risk
Knox has the safer floor (1.3 to 0.8); Adkins has more upside (a ceiling of 6.2 to 5.7).
Highlights
KnoxToss-upTE · BUF vs BALUsually 2.9+0.3pts this week
Helps him
- 28.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 28.8 points, a high scoring spot.
Hurts him
- 7%targetsHe draws only 7% of his team’s targets.
- 1.7per gameHe sees only 1.7 targets a game.
AdkinsFirst outTE · DEN vs KCUsually 2.9+0.0pts this week
Helps him
- KCvs TEsEdgeKC is the 3rd softest defense for tight ends.
Hurts him
- 2%targetsHe draws only 2% of his team’s targets.
- 0.7per gameHe sees only 0.7 targets a game.
EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionKnox: 3.3 (best)Adkins: 3.0
TD pointsof the projectionKnox: 1.0Adkins: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekKnox: 0.17Adkins: Our estimate
Projected team pointsKnox: 28.8 (best)Adkins: 19.8
Red zone targetsper gameKnox: 0.5 (best)Adkins: 0.4
Role
Snap shareKnox: 69% (best)Adkins: 32%
Usage worthptsKnox: 3.1 (best)Adkins: 1.6
Target shareKnox: 7% (best)Adkins: 2%
Targets / gameKnox: 1.7 (best)Adkins: 0.7
Air yards shareKnox: 3% (best)Adkins: 2%
Vacated targets this weekKnox: 0.0Adkins: 3.0 (best)
RZ target shareKnox: 12%Adkins: 12%
Inside 10 target shareKnox: 17%Adkins: 25% (best)
Catch rateKnox: 80%Adkins: 80%
Usage worth vs scoredScored 2.9Knox: Earned by usage 3.1Adkins: Earned by usage 1.6
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsKnox: AboveAdkins: Above
WOPRKnox: 0.13 (best)Adkins: 0.05
Range
FloorKnox: 1.3 (best)Adkins: 0.8
CeilingKnox: 5.7Adkins: 6.2 (best)
Points from TDssteadier when lowerKnox: 34%Adkins: 58%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Knox: 8% (best)Adkins: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterKnox: 66% (best)Adkins: 67%
SteadinessKnox: Volatile (best)±4.8 ptsAdkins: Volatile±5.5 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionKnox: C2026, 7 gmAdkins: A (best)2026, 6 gm
Game scriptKnox: Expected to lead (best)Adkins: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterKnox: 0.9 (best)Adkins: 1.7
Defense funnelKnox: PassAdkins: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedKnox: 15th (average) (best)Adkins: 12th (average)
Starting QBKnox: Allen (Active)Adkins: Nix (Active)
Opp defender outKnox: Robinson (LB)Adkins: None listed
Roof / surfaceKnox: OpenturfAdkins: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleKnox: Off a byeAdkins: Normal
Opp paceKnox: 17th (average) (best)Adkins: 24th (slow)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameKnox: 0.01st (tough)Adkins: 0.8 (best)29th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedKnox: 76% (best)25th (soft)Adkins: 70%11th (average)
Form
Last 3 avgKnox: 2.0 (best)Adkins: 0.0
Last 5 avgKnox: 3.2 (best)Adkins: 1.6
vs seasonKnox: −1.0 (Cooling) (best)Adkins: −2.9 (Cooling)
Yards per route runKnox: 0.46Adkins: 1.25 (best)
Receiving aDOTKnox: 4.0Adkins: 6.0
Target share trendKnox: SteadyAdkins: No usage yet
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterKnox: TE42 (best)Adkins: TE47
Yards linereceivingKnox: 7.5Adkins: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.