nuvela.ai
Scoring
#1 Start

Harrison

WR · ARI vs NYG

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

9.4pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Samuel

WR · SF vs DEN

Sun 4:25 PM

Proj pts

9.3pts

opportunity

Lower Conf

Deebo Samuel Sr. or Marvin Harrison Jr.: who should I start in Week 4?

Start Marvin Harrison Jr. Bench Deebo Samuel Sr. Marvin Harrison Jr. leads at 9.4. Deebo Samuel Sr. is the first one out, 0.2 short.

Crowd: 63% of managers started Samuel.

Highlights

Marvin Harrison Jr.Start
WR · ARI vs NYG

Pros

  • Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs WR

Cons

  • Shaky floor3.2 floor
Deebo Samuel Sr.Bench
WR · SF vs DEN

Pros

  • Alpha target share25% target share

Cons

  • Tough matchupTough · D+ vs WR

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

HarrisonStart
SamuelBench
Projection9.49.3
Floor3.27.2
Ceiling14.017.1
Target share18%25%
Matchup grade(recency weighted)B+D+
Implied team total23.025.3

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 5 avg: Harrison 2.7, Samuel 11.7.

Latest game on the card: Harrison 7, Samuel 15.4 (PPR points).

Why Marvin Harrison Jr.

Start Marvin Harrison Jr. — projects 9.4, a favorable matchup vs NYG, but the role is cooling.

Marvin Harrison Jr. projects 9.4 points on a 3.2–14.0 range. The matchup grades as favorable against NYG. Usage: targets / game at 6.1. Net: start Marvin Harrison Jr. this week.

Working for Harrison: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs WR).

Working against Harrison: Shaky floor (3.2 floor).

Where Harrison leads the head-to-head: Projection (9.4 vs 9.3); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs D+); Boom rate (27% vs 25%); Grade vs WR (recency weighted) (B+ vs D+).

Why Deebo Samuel Sr.

Sit Deebo Samuel Sr. — projects 9.3, a tough matchup vs DEN.

Deebo Samuel Sr. projects 9.3 points on a 7.2–17.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against DEN. Usage: targets / game at 6.2. Net: bench Deebo Samuel Sr. this week.

Working for Samuel: Alpha target share (25% target share).

Working against Samuel: Tough matchup (Tough · D+ vs WR).

Where Samuel leads the head-to-head: Floor (7.2 vs 3.2); Ceiling (17.1 vs 14.0); Target share (25% vs 18%); Implied team total (25.3 vs 23.0); Last 3 avg (13.3 vs 3.8); Last 5 avg (11.7 vs 2.7); vs season (+0.4 vs -5.0); Consistency (46% vs 38%); Bust rate (19% vs 27%); Targets / game (6.2 vs 6.1); Snap share (72% vs 71%); Red zone targets (13 vs 11); Implied total (25.3 vs 23.0).

Recent form

Marvin Harrison Jr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 2.4, 0, 4.3, 0, 7 (oldest to newest).

Deebo Samuel Sr.'s last 5 games: PPR points 11.3, 7.1, 18, 6.5, 15.4 (oldest to newest).

Harrison has already beaten Samuel's 9.3 projection in 0 of his 5; Samuel has beaten Harrison's 9.4 in 3 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) faces NYG, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 23.0, spread -1.5.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (SF) faces DEN, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 25.3, spread -3.0.

What flips it

Harrison's edge is 0.1 points (9.4 to 9.3). Samuel's ceiling (17.1) clears Harrison's projection, so a big game from Samuel flips it. Harrison's floor (3.2) sits under Samuel's projection, so a quiet game from Harrison flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

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