Douglas
WR · NE vs BUF
Proj pts
8.8pts
market
Bryant
WR · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
8.3pts
market
DeMario Douglas or Pat Bryant: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean DeMario Douglas over Pat Bryant by 0.5. DeMario Douglas leads at 8.8. Pat Bryant is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low target share10% target share
- Thin volume2.9 targets/g
Cons
- Low target share11% target share
- Thin volume3.8 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is boom rate: Douglas 12%, Bryant 25%.
Why DeMario Douglas
Start DeMario Douglas — projects 8.8, a tough matchup vs BUF, with a rising role.
DeMario Douglas projects 8.8 points on a 4.8–10.4 range. The matchup grades as tough against BUF. Usage: targets / game at 2.9. Net: start DeMario Douglas this week.
Working against Douglas: Low target share (10% target share), Thin volume (2.9 targets/g).
Where Douglas leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.8 vs 8.3); vs season (+0.8 vs -0.5); Consistency (32% vs 30%).
Why Pat Bryant
Sit Pat Bryant — projects 8.3, an even matchup vs SF.
Pat Bryant projects 8.3 points on a 7.2–13.1 range. The matchup grades as neutral against SF. Usage: targets / game at 3.8. Net: bench Pat Bryant this week.
Working against Bryant: Low target share (11% target share), Thin volume (3.8 targets/g).
Where Bryant leads the head-to-head: Floor (7.2 vs 4.8); Ceiling (13.1 vs 10.4); Target share (11% vs 10%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B- vs D); Implied team total (22.3 vs 20.8); Last 3 avg (8.1 vs 4.6); Last 5 avg (8.1 vs 4.7); Boom rate (25% vs 12%); Targets / game (3.8 vs 2.9); Snap share (53% vs 26%); Red zone targets (8 vs 7).
Recent form
DeMario Douglas's last 4 games: PPR points 1.9, 4.8, 4.9, 7 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Pat Bryant's last 3 games: PPR points 1.6, 8.2, 14.4 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Douglas has already beaten Bryant's 8.3 projection in 0 of his 4; Bryant has beaten Douglas's 8.8 in 1 of his 3.
Matchup
DeMario Douglas (NE) faces BUF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 20.8, spread +7.0.
Pat Bryant (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
What flips it
Douglas's edge is 0.5 points (8.8 to 8.3). Bryant's ceiling (13.1) clears Douglas's projection, so a big game from Bryant flips it. Douglas's floor (4.8) sits under Bryant's projection, so a quiet game from Douglas flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Mike Evans or Quentin Johnston9.7 · 9.7
- Jaylen Waddle or Matthew Golden15.2 · 15.2
- DJ Moore or DK Metcalf12.5 · 12.5
- Tee Higgins or Zay Flowers16.5 · 16.5
- Christian Watson or George Pickens16.8 · 16.8
- Justin Jefferson or KC Concepcion11.1 · 11.1
- More WR start/sit calls (wide receivers this week)