New

Week8 · 2026

Starting1

Scoring

New comparison

Toss-up

Boston

WR · CLE @ PIT

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points10.4pts

First out

Downs

WR · IND @ JAX

Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET

Projected points10.3ptsUsage estimate

Toss-up

Bench

Denzel Boston or Josh Downs: Who Should I Start in Week 8?

Toss-up. Denzel Boston gets the nod over Josh Downs.

Ahead by: +0.1pts; over Downs
Confidence: Lower; The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Started: 58%; of leagues

Downs's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.

Case for Downs

The case for Downs is surer hands (57% of his targets caught to 48%) and more targets (6.6 a game to 6.0).

Flips if

Start Josh Downs instead if you want surer hands (57% of his targets caught to 48%).

Risk

The risk: Boston caught 3 for 27 yards last week (5.7 points).

Highlights

Injuries as of Fri 2:00 PM ET

BostonToss-upWR · CLE @ PITUsually 11.0−0.7pts this week

Helps him

+0.6ptscatchesHis lines put him at 3.5 catches, above his usual 2.9.
91%snapsHe is on the field for 91% of snaps.

Hurts him

−0.7ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 0.31 touchdowns, below his usual 0.43.
7th toughestper targetEdgePIT allows plenty of WR chances because receivers see plenty of targets on them; per target they’re tough (1.60 pts, 7th toughest).

DownsFirst outWR · IND @ JAXUsually 8.2+2.1pts this week

Helps him

+1.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
+1.2ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
JAXvs WRsEdgeJAX is the 4th softest defense for receivers.

Hurts him

−0.5ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
18.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 18.3 points.
43%dud weeks43% of his games have been dud weeks.

Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.

Stat comparison

Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.

Scoring

Projection10.410.3

TD pointsof the projection1.9Our estimate

Expected TDsthis week0.31Our estimate

Projected team points18.018.3

Red zone targetsper game0.90.7

Role

Snap share91%82%

Usage worthpts10.711.4

Target share20%20%

Targets / game6.06.6

Air yards share45%29%

Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsAboveBelow

WOPR0.620.50

RZ target share28%23%

Catch rate48%57%

Separation1.9 yds2.4 yds

YAC over expected−0.4+0.7

Usage worth vs scoredEarned by usage 10.7Scored 11.0Earned by usage 11.4Scored 8.2

Vacated targets this week0.03.5

Inside 10 target share29%0%

Range

Floor6.46.2

Ceiling15.516.5

Points from TDssteadier when lower23%0%

Big weeks (20+ pts)14%0%

Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is better29%43%

SteadinessSteady±6.0 pts · 7 gamesVery steady±4.0 pts · 7 games

Matchup

Matchup gradevs his positionB-2026, 7 gmA2026, 6 gm

Game scriptExpected to trailExpected to trail

Opp takeaways / gamelower is better1.61.5

Defense funnelNeutralNeutral

Opp pass yds allowed13th (average)30th (soft)

Starting QBWatson (Active)Jones (Active)

Opp defender outJoseph-Day (DT)None listed

Roof / surfacegrassOpenOpen

Rest / scheduleNormalNormal

Opp pace13th (average)23rd (slow)

Opp deep targets allowed / game3.319th (average)4.027th (soft)

Opp catch rate allowed61%14th (average)65%24th (soft)

Form

Last 3 avg7.36.7

Last 5 avg8.67.5

vs season−3.8 (Cooling)−1.5 (Cooling)

Yards per route run1.801.39

Receiving aDOT16.610.7

Target share trendSteadySteady

Crowd

Started in leagues58%41%

Nuvela position ranklower is betterWR30WR32

Yards linereceiving49.5Our estimate

Deciding on someone else?

Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.

Sit or start?