McConkey
WR · LAC @ LA
Kickoff Sun 4:05 PM ET
Projected points9.9pts
Downs
WR · IND @ JAX
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points10.3ptsUsage estimate
Toss-up
Bench
Josh Downs or Ladd McConkey: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Ladd McConkey gets the nod over Josh Downs.
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 41%
- of leagues
Downs's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Downs
The case for Downs is the easier matchup (the 4th softest defense for receivers, while McConkey faces the 12th toughest defense for receivers) and fewer dud weeks (43% of his games to 50%).
Flips if
Start Josh Downs instead if you want more of the snaps (82% to 46%).
Risk
Ladd McConkey has played 1 game since missing time.
Highlights
McConkeyToss-upWR · LAC @ LAUsually 9.1+0.8pts this week
Helps him
- +0.5ptscatchesHis lines put him at 3.5 catches, above his usual 3.0.
Hurts him
- 50%dud weeks50% of his games have been dud weeks.
- −3.4last 3 vs avgHis last three games run 3.4 points below his season average.
DownsFirst outWR · IND @ JAXUsually 8.2+2.1pts this week
Helps him
- +1.6ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- +1.2ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran above this year’s pace.
- JAXvs WRsEdgeJAX is the 4th softest defense for receivers.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptspaceFew players at his position keep up numbers like his, so we expect a little less.
- 18.3team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score only 18.3 points.
- 43%dud weeks43% of his games have been dud weeks.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionMcConkey: 9.9Downs: 10.3 (best)
TD pointsof the projectionMcConkey: 1.8Downs: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekMcConkey: 0.30Downs: Our estimate
Projected team pointsMcConkey: 19.3 (best)Downs: 18.3
Red zone targetsper gameMcConkey: 0.4Downs: 0.7 (best)
Role
Snap shareMcConkey: 46%Downs: 82% (best)
Usage worthptsMcConkey: 6.5Downs: 11.4 (best)
Target shareMcConkey: 12%Downs: 20% (best)
Targets / gameMcConkey: 3.6Downs: 6.6 (best)
Air yards shareMcConkey: 19%Downs: 29% (best)
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsMcConkey: 2 RZ targetsDowns: Below
WOPRMcConkey: 0.31Downs: 0.50 (best)
RZ target shareMcConkey: 10%Downs: 23% (best)
Catch rateMcConkey: 72% (best)Downs: 57%
SeparationMcConkey: 3.1 yds (best)Downs: 2.4 yds
YAC over expectedMcConkey: +0.6Downs: +0.7 (best)
Usage worth vs scoredMcConkey: Earned by usage 6.5Scored 7.8Downs: Earned by usage 11.4Scored 8.2
Vacated targets this weekMcConkey: 4.0 (best)Downs: 3.5
Inside 10 target shareMcConkey: 18% (best)Downs: 0%
Range
FloorMcConkey: 5.8Downs: 6.2 (best)
CeilingMcConkey: 16.5Downs: 16.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerMcConkey: 15%Downs: 0%
Big weeks (20+ pts)McConkey: 0%Downs: 0%
Dud weeks (under 7 pts)lower is betterMcConkey: 50%Downs: 43% (best)
SteadinessMcConkey: Volatile±8.0 pts · 4 gamesDowns: Very steady (best)±4.0 pts · 7 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionMcConkey: C2026, 7 gmDowns: A (best)2026, 6 gm
Game scriptMcConkey: Expected to trail (best)Downs: Expected to trail
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterMcConkey: 0.9 (best)Downs: 1.5
Defense funnelMcConkey: NeutralDowns: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedMcConkey: 4th (tough)Downs: 30th (soft) (best)
Starting QBMcConkey: Herbert (Active)Downs: Jones (Active)
Opp defender outMcConkey: Garrett (LB)Downs: None listed
Roof / surfaceMcConkey: DometurfDowns: Opengrass
Rest / scheduleMcConkey: Off a byeDowns: Normal
Opp paceMcConkey: 3rd (fast) (best)Downs: 23rd (slow)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameMcConkey: 2.15th (tough)Downs: 4.0 (best)27th (soft)
Opp catch rate allowedMcConkey: 53%1st (tough)Downs: 65% (best)24th (soft)
Form
Last 3 avgMcConkey: 4.4Downs: 6.7 (best)
Last 5 avgMcConkey: 7.8 (best)Downs: 7.5
vs seasonMcConkey: −3.4 (Cooling)Downs: −1.5 (Cooling) (best)
Yards per route runMcConkey: 2.47 (best)Downs: 1.39
Receiving aDOTMcConkey: 13.2Downs: 10.7
Target share trendMcConkey: Left Week 6 hurtDowns: Steady
Games since injuryMcConkey: 1Downs: None recently
Crowd
Started in leaguesMcConkey: 41%Downs: 41%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterMcConkey: WR34Downs: WR32 (best)
Yards linereceivingMcConkey: 46.0Downs: Our estimate
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