Smith
TE · GB vs TB
Proj pts
5pts
market
Sample
TE · CIN vs JAX
Proj pts
5pts
market
Drew Sample or Jonnu Smith: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Jonnu Smith over Drew Sample; the two are level at 5.0. Jonnu Smith leads at 5.0. Drew Sample is the first one out, 0.0 short.
Smith and Sample are effectively tied on projection — Smith gets the start on the tie-break.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A- vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.2 targets/g
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage5% target share
- Thin volume1.7 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Smith 8, Sample 1.
Latest game on the card: Smith 3.6 (PPR points).
Why Jonnu Smith
Start Jonnu Smith — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs TB.
Jonnu Smith projects 5.0 points on a 1.5–8.8 range. The matchup grades as favorable against TB. Usage: targets / game at 3.2. Net: start Jonnu Smith this week.
Working for Smith: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A- vs TE).
Working against Smith: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.2 targets/g).
Where Smith leads the head-to-head: Ceiling (8.8 vs 5.0); Target share (11% vs 5%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A- vs B+); Last 3 avg (4.0 vs 3.0); Last 5 avg (4.9 vs 3.0); vs season (+0.7 vs -0.5); Consistency (24% vs 0%); Bust rate (29% vs 42%); Targets / game (3.2 vs 1.7); Red zone targets (8 vs 1).
Why Drew Sample
Sit Drew Sample — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs JAX.
Drew Sample projects 5.0 points on a 2.4–5.0 range. The matchup grades as favorable against JAX. Usage: targets / game at 1.7. Net: bench Drew Sample this week.
Working for Sample: High-scoring spot (27.0 team total), Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Sample: Low TE usage (5% target share), Thin volume (1.7 targets/g).
Where Sample leads the head-to-head: Floor (2.4 vs 1.5); Implied team total (27.0 vs 21.5); Boom rate (25% vs 24%); Snap share (56% vs 53%); Touchdown dependence (18% vs 14%).
Recent form
Jonnu Smith's last 5 games: PPR points 2.8, 9.7, 1.4, 7, 3.6 (oldest to newest).
Drew Sample's last 2 games: PPR points 1, 4.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Smith has already beaten Sample's 5 projection in 2 of his 5; Sample has beaten Smith's 5 in 0 of his 2.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Jonnu Smith (GB) faces TB, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread -3.5.
Drew Sample (CIN) faces JAX, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Smith and Sample are level on projection (5). Smith's floor (1.5) sits under Sample's projection, so a quiet game from Smith flips it. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)