Gray
TE · KC vs LV
Proj pts
5.1pts
market
Sample
TE · CIN vs JAX
Proj pts
5pts
market
Drew Sample or Noah Gray: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Noah Gray over Drew Sample by 0.1. Noah Gray leads at 5.1. Drew Sample is the first one out, 0.2 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Big-play upside36% boom weeks
Cons
- Low TE usage8% target share
- Thin volume2.6 targets/g
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage5% target share
- Thin volume1.7 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Gray 3, Sample 1.
Why Noah Gray
Start Noah Gray — projects 5.1, a tough matchup vs LV.
Noah Gray projects 5.1 points on a 1.2–6.0 range. The matchup grades as tough against LV. Usage: targets / game at 2.6. Net: start Noah Gray this week.
Working for Gray: Big-play upside (36% boom weeks).
Working against Gray: Low TE usage (8% target share), Thin volume (2.6 targets/g).
Where Gray leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.1 vs 5.0); Ceiling (6.0 vs 5.0); Target share (8% vs 5%); vs season (-0.1 vs -0.5); Consistency (29% vs 0%); Boom rate (36% vs 25%); Targets / game (2.6 vs 1.7); Red zone targets (3 vs 1).
Why Drew Sample
Sit Drew Sample — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs JAX.
Drew Sample projects 5.0 points on a 2.4–5.0 range. The matchup grades as favorable against JAX. Usage: targets / game at 1.7. Net: bench Drew Sample this week.
Working for Sample: High-scoring spot (27.0 team total), Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Sample: Low TE usage (5% target share), Thin volume (1.7 targets/g).
Where Sample leads the head-to-head: Floor (2.4 vs 1.2); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs D-); Implied team total (27.0 vs 26.0); Last 3 avg (3.0 vs 2.8); Last 5 avg (3.0 vs 2.8); Bust rate (42% vs 43%); Snap share (56% vs 53%); Touchdown dependence (18% vs 0%).
Recent form
Noah Gray's last 3 games: PPR points 0, 1.5, 6.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Drew Sample's last 2 games: PPR points 1, 4.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Gray has already beaten Sample's 5 projection in 1 of his 3; Sample has beaten Gray's 5.1 in 0 of his 2.
Matchup
Noah Gray (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
Drew Sample (CIN) faces JAX, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Gray's edge is 0.1 points (5.1 to 5). Gray's floor (1.2) sits under Sample's projection, so a quiet game from Gray flips it. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)