Gadsden
TE · LAC vs SEA
Proj pts
5.8pts
opportunity
Sample
TE · CIN vs JAX
Proj pts
5pts
market
Drew Sample or Oronde Gadsden II: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Oronde Gadsden II over Drew Sample by 0.8. Oronde Gadsden II leads at 5.8. Drew Sample is the first one out, 0.8 short.
Highlights
Cons
- Low team total17.8 team total
- Rotational role63% of snaps
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage5% target share
- Thin volume1.7 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Gadsden 15, Sample 1.
Latest game on the card: Gadsden 0 (PPR points).
Why Oronde Gadsden II
Start Oronde Gadsden II — projects 5.8, an even matchup vs SEA.
Oronde Gadsden II projects 5.8 points on a 2.8–10.0 range. The matchup grades as neutral against SEA. Usage: targets / game at 4.6. Net: start Oronde Gadsden II this week.
Working against Gadsden: Low team total (17.8 team total), Rotational role (63% of snaps).
Where Gadsden leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.8 vs 5.0); Floor (2.8 vs 2.4); Ceiling (10.0 vs 5.0); Target share (14% vs 5%); Last 3 avg (5.0 vs 3.0); Last 5 avg (6.3 vs 3.0); vs season (+0.8 vs -0.5); Consistency (17% vs 0%); Targets / game (4.6 vs 1.7); Snap share (63% vs 56%); Red zone targets (15 vs 1).
Why Drew Sample
Sit Drew Sample — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs JAX.
Drew Sample projects 5.0 points on a 2.4–5.0 range. The matchup grades as favorable against JAX. Usage: targets / game at 1.7. Net: bench Drew Sample this week.
Working for Sample: High-scoring spot (27.0 team total), Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Sample: Low TE usage (5% target share), Thin volume (1.7 targets/g).
Where Sample leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs B); Implied team total (27.0 vs 17.8); Boom rate (25% vs 13%); Bust rate (42% vs 47%); Touchdown dependence (18% vs 14%).
Recent form
Oronde Gadsden II's last 5 games: PPR points 12.2, 4.3, 5.2, 9.8, 0 (oldest to newest).
Drew Sample's last 2 games: PPR points 1, 4.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Gadsden has already beaten Sample's 5 projection in 3 of his 5; Sample has beaten Gadsden's 5.8 in 0 of his 2.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) faces SEA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 17.8, spread +7.0.
Drew Sample (CIN) faces JAX, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -2.5.
What flips it
Gadsden's edge is 0.8 points (5.8 to 5). Gadsden's floor (2.8) sits under Sample's projection, so a quiet game from Gadsden flips it. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)