Sample
TE · CIN vs JAX
Proj pts
5pts
market
Johnson
TE · NYG vs ARI
Proj pts
4.5pts
opportunity
Drew Sample or Theo Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Drew Sample over Theo Johnson by 0.5. Drew Sample leads at 5.0. Theo Johnson is the first one out, 0.5 short.
Highlights
Pros
- High-scoring spot27.0 team total
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Low TE usage5% target share
- Thin volume1.7 targets/g
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Cons
- Shaky floor4.1 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is red zone targets: Sample 1, Johnson 14.
Latest game on the card: Johnson 0 (PPR points).
Why Drew Sample
Start Drew Sample — projects 5.0, a favorable matchup vs JAX.
Drew Sample projects 5.0 points on a 2.4–5.0 range. The matchup grades as favorable against JAX. Usage: targets / game at 1.7. Net: start Drew Sample this week.
Working for Sample: High-scoring spot (27.0 team total), Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Sample: Low TE usage (5% target share), Thin volume (1.7 targets/g).
Where Sample leads the head-to-head: Projection (5.0 vs 4.5); Implied team total (27.0 vs 21.5); Last 3 avg (3.0 vs 0.6); vs season (-0.5 vs -3.1); Boom rate (25% vs 20%).
Why Theo Johnson
Sit Theo Johnson — projects 4.5, a favorable matchup vs ARI, but the role is cooling.
Theo Johnson projects 4.5 points on a 4.1–11.3 range. The matchup grades as favorable against ARI. Usage: targets / game at 4.9. Net: bench Theo Johnson this week.
Working for Johnson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Working against Johnson: Shaky floor (4.1 floor).
Where Johnson leads the head-to-head: Floor (4.1 vs 2.4); Ceiling (11.3 vs 5.0); Target share (17% vs 5%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs B+); Last 5 avg (3.6 vs 3.0); Consistency (34% vs 0%); Bust rate (20% vs 42%); Targets / game (4.9 vs 1.7); Snap share (87% vs 56%); Red zone targets (14 vs 1); Touchdown dependence (24% vs 18%).
Recent form
Drew Sample's last 2 games: PPR points 1, 4.9 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).
Theo Johnson's last 5 games: PPR points 5.9, 10.2, 0, 1.9, 0 (oldest to newest).
Sample has already beaten Johnson's 4.5 projection in 1 of his 2; Johnson has beaten Sample's 5 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Drew Sample (CIN) faces JAX, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 27.0, spread -2.5.
Theo Johnson (NYG) faces ARI, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 21.5, spread +1.5.
What flips it
Sample's edge is 0.5 points (5 to 4.5). Johnson's ceiling (11.3) clears Sample's projection, so a big game from Johnson flips it. Sample's floor (2.4) sits under Johnson's projection, so a quiet game from Sample flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.5 · 11.4
- Mark Andrews or Tucker Kraft12.9 · 13.0
- Dalton Schultz or Kenyon Sadiq13.6 · 13.5
- Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce14.9 · 15.1
- Harold Fannin Jr. or Tucker Kraft13.2 · 13.0
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.0 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)