Mallory
TE · IND @ JAX
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points4.0ptsUsage estimate
Sample
TE · CIN vs TEN
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points3.4pts
Toss-up
Bench
Drew Sample or Will Mallory: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Toss-up. Will Mallory gets the nod over Drew Sample.
- Ahead by
- +0.6pts
- over Sample
- Confidence
- Lower
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
Mallory's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Case for Sample
The case for Sample is an offense expected to score more (29.5 points to 18.3) and more of the snaps (52% to 43%).
Flips if
Start Drew Sample instead if you want an offense expected to score more (29.5 points to 18.3).
Risk
Will Mallory has played 2 games since missing time, so his recent numbers lean on his 2025 games.
Highlights
MalloryToss-upTE · IND @ JAXUsually 1.5+2.4pts this week
Helps him
- +1.4ptspaceMost players at his position produce more than he has, so we expect him to bounce back some.
- +1.0ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
- +0.5ptsrecent workHis work has picked up in his last few games.
Hurts him
- −0.5ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
SampleFirst outTE · CIN vs TENUsually 3.0+0.5pts this week
Helps him
- 29.5team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 29.5 points, a high scoring spot.
Hurts him
- 4%targetsHe draws only 4% of his team’s targets.
- 1.3per gameHe sees only 1.3 targets a game.
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionMallory: 4.0 (best)Sample: 3.4
TD pointsof the projectionMallory: Our estimateSample: 1.1
Expected TDsthis weekMallory: Our estimateSample: 0.18
Projected team pointsMallory: 18.3Sample: 29.5 (best)
Red zone targetsper gameMallory: 0.5 (best)Sample: 0.3
Role
Snap shareMallory: 43%Sample: 52% (best)
Usage worthptsMallory: 8.0 (best)Sample: 2.3
Target shareMallory: 15% (best)Sample: 4%
Targets / gameMallory: 4.5 (best)Sample: 1.3
Air yards shareMallory: 21% (best)Sample: 0.4%
Vacated targets this weekMallory: 3.5Sample: 6.8 (best)
RZ target shareMallory: 25% (best)Sample: 6%
Inside 10 target shareMallory: 0%Sample: 0%
Catch rateMallory: 22%Sample: 88% (best)
SeparationMallory: 3.0 ydsSample: Not tracked
YAC over expectedMallory: +0.4Sample: Not tracked
Usage worth vs scoredMallory: Earned by usage 8.0Scored 2.0Sample: Earned by usage 2.3Scored 3.0
WOPRMallory: 0.33 (best)Sample: 0.07
Range
FloorMallory: 1.3 (best)Sample: 1.2
CeilingMallory: 7.6 (best)Sample: 6.4
Points from TDssteadier when lowerMallory: 0%Sample: 34%
Big weeks (15+ pts)Mallory: 0%Sample: 0%
Dud weeks (under 5 pts)lower is betterMallory: 100%Sample: 83% (best)
SteadinessMallory: Volatile (best)±1.9 pts · 4 gamesSample: Volatile±4.1 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his positionMallory: C (best)2026, 6 gmSample: D+2026, 7 gm
Game scriptMallory: Expected to trailSample: Expected to lead (best)
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterMallory: 1.5Sample: 1.0 (best)
Defense funnelMallory: NeutralSample: Neutral
Opp pass yds allowedMallory: 30th (soft) (best)Sample: 23rd (soft)
Starting QBMallory: Jones (Active)Sample: Burrow (Active)
Opp defender outMallory: Johnson (SAF)Sample: None listed
Roof / surfaceMallory: OpengrassSample: Openturf
Rest / scheduleMallory: NormalSample: Normal
Opp paceMallory: 23rd (slow) (best)Sample: 32nd (slow)
Opp deep targets allowed / gameMallory: 0.01st (tough)Sample: 0.6 (best)18th (average)
Opp catch rate allowedMallory: 68% (best)6th (tough)Sample: 67%5th (tough)
Form
Last 3 avgMallory: 2 gamesSample: 4.0
Last 5 avgMallory: 2 gamesSample: 2.6
vs seasonMallory: 0.0Sample: +1.0 (Rising) (best)
Yards per route runMallory: 0.47Sample: 0.74 (best)
Receiving aDOTMallory: 10.9Sample: 0.9
Target share trendMallory: 2 gamesSample: Rising
Games since injuryMallory: 2Sample: None recently
Crowd
Nuvela position ranklower is betterMallory: TE37 (best)Sample: TE40
Yards linereceivingMallory: Our estimateSample: 8.5
Deciding on someone else?
Choose 2 to 5 players for any week.