Williams
RB · DAL vs ARI
Kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET
Projected points17.1pts
Wilson
RB · SEA vs CHI
Kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET
Projected points11.6ptsUsage estimate
Lean
Bench
Emanuel Wilson or Javonte Williams: Who Should I Start in Week 8?
Lean Javonte Williams over Emanuel Wilson.
- Ahead by
- +5.5pts
- over Wilson
- Confidence
- Moderate
- The two projections come from different sources; one is a Nuvela estimate
- Started
- 98%
- of leagues
Wilson's number is our own estimate because his prop lines aren't posted yet, so this call is less sure than the gap looks.
Flips if
An injury tag on Javonte Williams or a bigger role for Emanuel Wilson.
Risk
The risk: Wilson ran for 100 yards, caught 1 for 15 and scored last week (18.5 points).
Highlights
WilliamsLeanRB · DAL vs ARIUsually 18.6−1.5pts this week
Helps him
- +1.0ptsrush yardsHis lines put him at 77.5 rushing yards, above his usual 67.4.
- 30.8team totalEdgeHis team is expected to score 30.8 points, a high scoring spot.
- 12.1floorA quiet week still projects to about 12.1 points.
- 5games in a rowHe has scored a touchdown in 5 straight games.
Hurts him
- −1.2ptscatchesHis lines put him at 1.5 catches, below his usual 2.7.
- −1.0ptstouchdownsHis lines put him at 1.12 touchdowns, below his usual 1.29.
- ARIvs RBsEdgeARI is the 12th toughest defense for running backs.
WilsonFirst outRB · SEA vs CHIUsually 12.4−0.9pts this week
Helps him
- +2.5ptsroleHe’s expected to play more snaps this week than he has lately.
Hurts him
- −1.9ptstrack recordHis projection also weighs his past seasons, which ran below this year’s pace.
- −1.0ptsgames left hurtHis projection still counts the games he left hurt, which his usual week leaves out.
- 3rd softestper carryEdgeCHI allows few RB chances because teams throw on them; per carry or target they’re soft (0.85 pts, 3rd softest).
Points are what each line adds to or takes off his usual week. EdgeFrom the game around him.
Stat comparison
Every player you picked, stat by stat, most important first.
Stat
Scoring
ProjectionWilliams: 17.1 (best)Wilson: 11.6
TD pointsof the projectionWilliams: 6.7Wilson: Our estimate
Expected TDsthis weekWilliams: 1.12Wilson: Our estimate
Projected team pointsWilliams: 30.8 (best)Wilson: 24.8
Goal line carriesper gameWilliams: 2.4 (best)Wilson: 1.0
Red zone carriesper gameWilliams: 4.4 (best)Wilson: 2.4
Red zone targetsper gameWilliams: 0.4 (best)Wilson: 0.1
Role
Snap shareWilliams: 75% (best)Wilson: 40%
Usage worthptsWilliams: 17.7 (best)Wilson: 11.9
Touch shareWilliams: 38% (best)Wilson: 33%
Target shareWilliams: 9% (best)Wilson: 5%
Touches / gameWilliams: 18.4 (best)Wilson: 16.7
Targets / gameWilliams: 3.1 (best)Wilson: 1.3
Vacated touches this weekWilliams: 0.0Wilson: 11.7 (best)
High value touches / gameWilliams: 5.6 (best)Wilson: 2.6
Goal line carry shareWilliams: 94% (best)Wilson: 50%
Red zone touches / gameWilliams: 4.9 (best)Wilson: 2.6
Rush success rateWilliams: 47% (best)Wilson: 36%
Breakaway rate (20+ yd runs)Williams: 2.7% (best)Wilson: 0.9%
Usage worth vs scoredWilliams: Earned by usage 17.7Scored 18.6Wilson: Earned by usage 11.9Scored 10.7
Rush yards / gameWilliams: 67.4 (best)Wilson: 57.6
Points from rushingWilliams: 73%Wilson: 78%
Receiving TDs vs RZ targetsWilliams: AboveWilson: 1 RZ target
WOPRWilliams: 0.12 (best)Wilson: 0.07
RZ target shareWilliams: 7% (best)Wilson: 3%
Inside 10 target shareWilliams: 0%Wilson: 0%
Catch rateWilliams: 86% (best)Wilson: 67%
Rushing points / gameWilliams: 13.6 pts / game (best)Wilson: 8.3 pts / game
Rushing floorWilliams: 8.1 pts / game (best)Wilson: 6.4 pts / game
Range
FloorWilliams: 12.1 (best)Wilson: 6.8
CeilingWilliams: 25.3 (best)Wilson: 18.5
Points from TDssteadier when lowerWilliams: 41%Wilson: 32%
Big weeks (20+ pts)Williams: 27% (best)Wilson: 17%
Dud weeks (under 8 pts)lower is betterWilliams: 4% (best)Wilson: 33%
SteadinessWilliams: Very steady (best)±7.0 ptsWilson: Up & down±9.3 pts · 6 games
Matchup
Matchup gradevs his position · 2026, 7 gmWilliams: C-Wilson: C-
Game scriptWilliams: Expected to lead (best)Wilson: Expected to lead
Opp takeaways / gamelower is betterWilliams: 1.1 (best)Wilson: 1.4
Defense funnelWilliams: PassWilson: Neutral
Opp rush yds allowedWilliams: 23rd (soft) (best)Wilson: 3rd (tough)
Backfield roleWilliams: LeadWilson: Committee
Opp defender outWilliams: None listedWilson: Johnson (SAF)
Roof / surfaceturfWilliams: Retractable roofWilson: Open
Rest / scheduleWilliams: NormalWilson: Normal
Opp paceWilliams: 2nd (fast)Wilson: 1st (fast) (best)
Opp stuff rateWilliams: 16% (best)23rd (soft)Wilson: 18%18th (average)
Opp yards per carry allowed21st (average)Williams: 4.3Wilson: 4.3
Opp pass yds allowedWilliams: 21st (average) (best)Wilson: 20th (average)
Opp deep targets allowed / game24th (soft)Williams: 0.1Wilson: 0.1
Opp catch rate allowedWilliams: 71%8th (tough)Wilson: 84% (best)25th (soft)
Starting QBWilliams: Prescott (Active)Wilson: Darnold (Active)
Form
Last 3 avgWilliams: 16.2 (best)Wilson: 12.3
Last 5 avgWilliams: 19.7 (best)Wilson: 13.1
vs seasonWilliams: −2.4 (Cooling)Wilson: +1.6 (Rising) (best)
Yards per carryWilliams: 4.3 (best)Wilson: 3.6
Carries / gameWilliams: 15.7Wilson: 15.9 (best)
Yards per route runWilliams: 0.93Wilson: 1.35 (best)
Receiving aDOTWilliams: −1.6Wilson: −1.3
Touch share trendWilliams: SteadyWilson: Steady
Crowd
Started in leaguesWilliams: 99% (best)Wilson: 47%
Nuvela position ranklower is betterWilliams: RB5 (best)Wilson: RB24
Yards linerushingWilliams: 77.5Wilson: Our estimate
Deciding on someone else?
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