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Scoring
#1 Start

Pollard

RB · TEN vs BAL

Sun 1:00 PM

Proj pts

11.8pts

market

Lower Conf
Bench

Wilson

RB · SEA vs LAC

Sun 4:25 PM

Proj pts

11.5pts

market

Lower Conf

Emanuel Wilson or Tony Pollard: who should I start in Week 4?

Toss-up: lean Tony Pollard over Emanuel Wilson by 0.3. Tony Pollard leads at 11.8. Emanuel Wilson is the first one out, 0.3 short.

Crowd: 38% of managers started Pollard.

Availability & news

  • Tony PollardPractice: DNP

    Pollard (foot) practiced without limitations Thursday.(rotowire, Oct 1, 2026)

Highlights

Tony PollardStart
RB · TEN vs BAL

Cons

  • Low team total15.5 team total
Emanuel WilsonBench
RB · SEA vs LAC

Pros

  • Positive game scriptFavored

Cons

  • Committee back17% of touches
  • Tough matchupTough · D- vs RB

Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).

PollardStart
WilsonBench
Projection11.811.5
Floor7.94.6
Ceiling16.614.3
Touch share38%17%
Opportunity score12.56.2
Matchup grade(recency weighted)BD-
Implied team total15.524.8

Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET

The widest gap between them, in proportion, is bust rate: Pollard 6%, Wilson 33%.

Pollard (Practice: DNP): “Pollard (foot) practiced without limitations Thursday.” — RotoWire, Oct 1, 2026.

Latest game on the card: Wilson 1.4 (PPR points).

Why Tony Pollard

Start Tony Pollard — projects 11.8, an even matchup vs BAL, but the role is cooling.

Tony Pollard projects 11.8 points on a 7.9–16.6 range. The matchup grades as neutral against BAL. Usage: carries / game at 14.2. Net: start Tony Pollard this week.

Working against Pollard: Low team total (15.5 team total).

Where Pollard leads the head-to-head: Projection (11.8 vs 11.5); Floor (7.9 vs 4.6); Ceiling (16.6 vs 14.3); Touch share (38% vs 17%); Opportunity score (12.5 vs 6.2); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs D-); Last 3 avg (8.5 vs 3.6); Last 5 avg (9.3 vs 4.0); Consistency (52% vs 28%); Boom rate (12% vs 11%); Bust rate (6% vs 33%); Carries / game (14.2 vs 7.4); Touches / game (16.2 vs 8.2); Target share (8% vs 4%); Yards per carry (4.5 vs 4.0); Snap share (62% vs 31%).

Why Emanuel Wilson

Sit Emanuel Wilson — projects 11.5, a tough matchup vs LAC.

Emanuel Wilson projects 11.5 points on a 4.6–14.3 range. The matchup grades as tough against LAC. Usage: carries / game at 7.4. Net: bench Emanuel Wilson this week.

Working for Wilson: Positive game script (Favored).

Working against Wilson: Committee back (17% of touches), Tough matchup (Tough · D- vs RB).

Where Wilson leads the head-to-head: Implied team total (24.8 vs 15.5); vs season (-2.0 vs -2.5); Red zone carries (24 vs 19).

Recent form

Tony Pollard's last 5 games: PPR points 4.4, 7.5, 9.5, 11.5, 13.6 (low to high; the card does not say which came first).

Emanuel Wilson's last 5 games: PPR points 3.4, 5.8, 0.3, 9.2, 1.4 (oldest to newest).

Pollard has already beaten Wilson's 11.5 projection in 1 of his 5; Wilson has beaten Pollard's 11.8 in 0 of his 5.

At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.

Matchup

Tony Pollard (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 15.5, spread +11.5.

Emanuel Wilson (SEA) faces LAC, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 24.8, spread -7.0.

What flips it

Pollard's edge is 0.3 points (11.8 to 11.5). Wilson's ceiling (14.3) clears Pollard's projection, so a big game from Wilson flips it. Pollard's floor (7.9) sits under Wilson's projection, so a quiet game from Pollard flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.

How to read these numbers →

More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.

More Emanuel Wilson comparisons

More Tony Pollard comparisons

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