Worthy
WR · KC vs LV
Proj pts
11.3pts
market
Egbuka
WR · TB vs GB
Proj pts
11.2pts
market
Emeka Egbuka or Xavier Worthy: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Xavier Worthy. Bench Emeka Egbuka. Xavier Worthy leads at 11.3. Emeka Egbuka is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Crowd: started Egbuka 75%
Highlights
Cons
- Shaky floor5.3 floor
Cons
- Low team total18.0 team total
- Shaky floor5.0 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 6:00 AM ET
Why Xavier Worthy
Start Xavier Worthy — projects 11.3, an even matchup vs LV.
Xavier Worthy projects 11.3 points on a 5.3–16.4 range. The matchup grades as neutral against LV. Usage: targets / game at 5.2. Net: Xavier Worthy is start this week.
Working against Worthy: Shaky floor (5.3 floor).
Where Worthy leads the head-to-head: Projection (11.3 vs 11.2); Floor (5.3 vs 5.0); Ceiling (16.4 vs 14.9); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B vs C+); Implied team total (26.0 vs 18.0); Consistency (55% vs 29%); Bust rate (8% vs 29%); Grade vs WR (recency weighted) (B vs C+); Implied total (26.0 vs 18.0).
Why Emeka Egbuka
Sit Emeka Egbuka — projects 11.2, an even matchup vs GB, with a rising role.
Emeka Egbuka projects 11.2 points on a 5.0–14.9 range. The matchup grades as neutral against GB. Usage: targets / game at 7.5. Net: Emeka Egbuka is a bench this week.
Working against Egbuka: Low team total (18.0 team total), Shaky floor (5.0 floor).
Where Egbuka leads the head-to-head: Target share (24% vs 16%); Last 3 avg (10.9 vs 7.4); Last 5 avg (7.9 vs 5.7); vs season (+0.6 vs -1.2); Boom rate (24% vs 8%); Targets / game (7.5 vs 5.2); Snap share (78% vs 71%); Red zone targets (15 vs 6).
Recent form
Xavier Worthy's last 5 games: PPR points 6.1, 0.1, 4.8, 13.5, 4 (oldest to newest).
Emeka Egbuka's last 5 games: PPR points 5, 1.8, 11.3, 10.3, 11.2 (oldest to newest).
Worthy has already beaten Egbuka's 11.2 projection in 1 of his 5; Egbuka has beaten Worthy's 11.3 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 were played before the 2026 season — the card does not date them.
Matchup
Xavier Worthy (KC) faces LV, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 26.0, spread -4.5.
Emeka Egbuka (TB) faces GB, kickoff Sun 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 18.0, spread +3.5.
What flips it
Worthy's edge is 0.1 points (11.3 to 11.2). Egbuka's ceiling (14.9) clears Worthy's projection, so a big game from Egbuka flips it. Worthy's floor (5.3) sits under Egbuka's projection, so a quiet game from Worthy flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
How to read these numbers
- Confidence in the call
- How clear-cut this start/sit call is — how decisively the player beats the alternative he competes with (for a starter, the best player on your bench; for a bench player, the last one in your lineup), on both projected points and the overlap of their likely ranges. A clear play reads high; a genuine toss-up reads lower. It rates the decision, not the player’s own volatility, and is not a measured accuracy rate.
- Floor
- The 20th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Ceiling
- The 90th percentile of the same simulated distribution.
- Matchup grade
- The opponent’s points allowed to this position per game, weighted toward recent games, then graded on a curve across the 32 defenses.
- Implied team total
- The points the betting market expects this team to score, derived from the game total and the spread. Market-derived, not modelled by Nuvela.
- Trend
- The direction of his scoring across the trailing window, classified as heating, steady or cooling.
- Consistency
- The share of his games that landed within a set band of his own per-game average.
- Boom rate
- The share of his games that finished inside the top 12 scorers at his position for that week.
- Bust rate
- The share of his games that came in under half of what he was projected for that week.
- Defense funnel
- Whether the opponent’s rush defense and pass defense are far enough apart to push offenses one way. A gap inside the band reads Neutral.
- Game script projection
- The expected state of the game for his team — favoured, level or trailing — taken from the closing spread.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.