Engram
TE · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
7.7pts
market
Helm
TE · TEN vs BAL
Proj pts
7.6pts
market
Evan Engram or Gunnar Helm: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Evan Engram over Gunnar Helm by 0.1. Evan Engram leads at 7.7. Gunnar Helm is the first one out, 0.1 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Rotational role42% of snaps
- Shaky floor2.8 floor
Cons
- Low TE usage11% target share
- Thin volume3.4 targets/g
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touchdown dependence: Engram 6%, Helm 13%.
Latest game on the card: Engram 0, Helm 3.4 (PPR points).
Why Evan Engram
Start Evan Engram — projects 7.7, a favorable matchup vs SF.
Evan Engram projects 7.7 points on a 2.8–11.7 range. The matchup grades as favorable against SF. Usage: targets / game at 4.8. Net: start Evan Engram this week.
Working for Engram: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Engram: Rotational role (42% of snaps), Shaky floor (2.8 floor).
Where Engram leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.7 vs 7.6); Ceiling (11.7 vs 10.1); Target share (14% vs 11%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs D); Implied team total (22.3 vs 16.0); Last 3 avg (5.7 vs 4.5); Last 5 avg (6.1 vs 3.5); vs season (-0.1 vs -2.5); Consistency (41% vs 34%); Targets / game (4.8 vs 3.4); Red zone targets (12 vs 8).
Why Gunnar Helm
Sit Gunnar Helm — projects 7.6, a tough matchup vs BAL.
Gunnar Helm projects 7.6 points on a 3.2–10.1 range. The matchup grades as tough against BAL. Usage: targets / game at 3.4. Net: bench Gunnar Helm this week.
Working against Helm: Low TE usage (11% target share), Thin volume (3.4 targets/g).
Where Helm leads the head-to-head: Floor (3.2 vs 2.8); Snap share (53% vs 42%); Touchdown dependence (13% vs 6%).
Recent form
Evan Engram's last 5 games: PPR points 6.1, 7.5, 14.3, 2.7, 0 (oldest to newest).
Gunnar Helm's last 5 games: PPR points 2.9, 1.1, 6.8, 3.3, 3.4 (oldest to newest).
Engram has already beaten Helm's 7.6 projection in 1 of his 5; Helm has beaten Engram's 7.7 in 0 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Evan Engram (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
Gunnar Helm (TEN) faces BAL, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET. The matchup is rated tough. Betting line: implied team total 16.0, spread +11.5.
What flips it
Engram's edge is 0.1 points (7.7 to 7.6). Helm's ceiling (10.1) clears Engram's projection, so a big game from Helm flips it. Engram's floor (2.8) sits under Helm's projection, so a quiet game from Engram flips it too. Confidence in the call: lower.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)