Pitts
TE · ATL vs NO
Proj pts
8.9pts
market
Engram
TE · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
7.7pts
market
Evan Engram or Kyle Pitts: who should I start in Week 4?
Start Kyle Pitts. Bench Evan Engram. Kyle Pitts leads at 8.9. Evan Engram is the first one out, 1.2 short.
Highlights
Pros
- Alpha TE usage23% target share
- Spike upside17.8 ceiling
Cons
- Shaky floor3.3 floor
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Rotational role42% of snaps
- Shaky floor2.8 floor
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is last 3 avg: Pitts 1.3, Engram 5.7.
Latest game on the card: Pitts 1.5, Engram 0 (PPR points).
Why Kyle Pitts
Start Kyle Pitts — projects 8.9, an even matchup vs NO, but the role is cooling.
Kyle Pitts projects 8.9 points on a 3.3–17.8 range. The matchup grades as neutral against NO. Usage: targets / game at 6.9. Net: start Kyle Pitts this week.
Working for Pitts: Alpha TE usage (23% target share), Spike upside (17.8 ceiling).
Working against Pitts: Shaky floor (3.3 floor).
Where Pitts leads the head-to-head: Projection (8.9 vs 7.7); Floor (3.3 vs 2.8); Ceiling (17.8 vs 11.7); Target share (23% vs 14%); Implied team total (22.8 vs 22.3); Bust rate (29% vs 31%); Targets / game (6.9 vs 4.8); Snap share (88% vs 42%); Red zone targets (13 vs 12); Touchdown dependence (14% vs 6%); Implied total (22.8 vs 22.3).
Why Evan Engram
Sit Evan Engram — projects 7.7, a favorable matchup vs SF.
Evan Engram projects 7.7 points on a 2.8–11.7 range. The matchup grades as favorable against SF. Usage: targets / game at 4.8. Net: bench Evan Engram this week.
Working for Engram: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Engram: Rotational role (42% of snaps), Shaky floor (2.8 floor).
Where Engram leads the head-to-head: Matchup grade (recency weighted) (B+ vs C); Last 3 avg (5.7 vs 1.3); Last 5 avg (6.1 vs 4.1); vs season (-0.1 vs -7.9); Consistency (41% vs 23%); Boom rate (19% vs 6%); Grade vs TE (recency weighted) (B+ vs C).
Recent form
Kyle Pitts's last 5 games: PPR points 3.6, 12.8, 0, 2.5, 1.5 (oldest to newest).
Evan Engram's last 5 games: PPR points 6.1, 7.5, 14.3, 2.7, 0 (oldest to newest).
Pitts has already beaten Engram's 7.7 projection in 1 of his 5; Engram has beaten Pitts's 8.9 in 1 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Kyle Pitts (ATL) faces NO, kickoff Mon 8:15 PM ET. The matchup is rated neutral. Betting line: implied team total 22.8, spread +3.0.
Evan Engram (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
What flips it
Pitts's edge is 1.2 points (8.9 to 7.7). Engram's ceiling (11.7) clears Pitts's projection, so a big game from Engram flips it. Pitts's floor (3.3) sits under Engram's projection, so a quiet game from Pitts flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- Hunter Henry or AJ Barner11.2 · 11.2
- Tucker Kraft or Isaiah Likely12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- Colston Loveland or AJ Barner11.3 · 11.2
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)