Engram
TE · DEN vs SF
Proj pts
7.7pts
market
Hockenson
TE · MIN vs MIA
Proj pts
6.9pts
opportunity
Evan Engram or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
Toss-up: lean Evan Engram over T.J. Hockenson by 0.8. Evan Engram leads at 7.7. T.J. Hockenson is the first one out, 0.8 short.
Crowd: 32% of managers started Hockenson.
Highlights
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · B+ vs TE
Cons
- Rotational role42% of snaps
- Shaky floor2.8 floor
Pros
- Favorable matchupFavorable · A vs TE
Some recent form, opportunity and matchup figures still lean on the 2025 season (not enough games played this season yet).
Week 4 · Updated Tue 29 Sep, 6:00 AM ET
The widest gap between them, in proportion, is touchdown dependence: Engram 6%, Hockenson 16%.
Latest game on the card: Engram 0, Hockenson 3.1 (PPR points).
Why Evan Engram
Start Evan Engram — projects 7.7, a favorable matchup vs SF.
Evan Engram projects 7.7 points on a 2.8–11.7 range. The matchup grades as favorable against SF. Usage: targets / game at 4.8. Net: start Evan Engram this week.
Working for Engram: Favorable matchup (Favorable · B+ vs TE).
Working against Engram: Rotational role (42% of snaps), Shaky floor (2.8 floor).
Where Engram leads the head-to-head: Projection (7.7 vs 6.9); Ceiling (11.7 vs 11.4); vs season (-0.1 vs -0.2); Boom rate (19% vs 13%); Targets / game (4.8 vs 4.4); Red zone targets (12 vs 11).
Why T.J. Hockenson
Sit T.J. Hockenson — projects 6.9, a favorable matchup vs MIA.
T.J. Hockenson projects 6.9 points on a 5.1–11.4 range. The matchup grades as favorable against MIA. Usage: targets / game at 4.4. Net: bench T.J. Hockenson this week.
Working for Hockenson: Favorable matchup (Favorable · A vs TE).
Where Hockenson leads the head-to-head: Floor (5.1 vs 2.8); Target share (16% vs 14%); Matchup grade (recency weighted) (A vs B+); Implied team total (24.5 vs 22.3); Last 3 avg (7.5 vs 5.7); Last 5 avg (6.9 vs 6.1); Consistency (48% vs 41%); Bust rate (20% vs 31%); Snap share (78% vs 42%); Touchdown dependence (16% vs 6%).
Recent form
Evan Engram's last 5 games: PPR points 6.1, 7.5, 14.3, 2.7, 0 (oldest to newest).
T.J. Hockenson's last 5 games: PPR points 10.6, 1.2, 13.6, 5.9, 3.1 (oldest to newest).
Engram has already beaten Hockenson's 6.9 projection in 2 of his 5; Hockenson has beaten Engram's 7.7 in 2 of his 5.
At least 1 of these 5 games was played before the 2026 season.
Matchup
Evan Engram (DEN) faces SF, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 22.3, spread +3.0.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) faces MIA, kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET. The matchup is rated favorable. Betting line: implied team total 24.5, spread -10.5.
What flips it
Engram's edge is 0.8 points (7.7 to 6.9). Hockenson's ceiling (11.4) clears Engram's projection, so a big game from Hockenson flips it. Engram's floor (2.8) sits under Hockenson's projection, so a quiet game from Engram flips it too. Confidence in the call: moderate.
More start/sit comparisons from this week's PPR projections. Open a pair for the call and the reasoning.
This week's toughest calls
- Colston Loveland or Hunter Henry11.3 · 11.2
- Juwan Johnson or Tucker Kraft12.3 · 12.2
- AJ Barner or Hunter Henry11.2 · 11.2
- Isaiah Likely or Tucker Kraft12.2 · 12.2
- Brenton Strange or Colston Loveland11.4 · 11.3
- AJ Barner or Colston Loveland11.2 · 11.3
- More TE start/sit calls (tight ends this week)